[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT31 KNHC 151147
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL312020
700 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...IOTA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINDS, A
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS TO CENTRAL
AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 77.8W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Providencia
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi
* The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Andres

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta
Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located
near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 77.8 West. Iota is moving toward
the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days
until landfall occurs in Central America. On the forecast track,
Iota will move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today, pass
near or over Providencia island on Monday, and approach the coasts
of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next
day or two, and Iota is forecast to be a major hurricane when it
approaches Central America.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

RAINFALL:  Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Thursday:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16
inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500
to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua
into northern Honduras.

Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200
mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

El Salvador and southern Nicaragua: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches (200 mm).

Jamaica: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm).

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected on the island of
Providencia by late tonight with tropical storm conditions
expected beginning this evening. Hurricane conditions are
expected within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua and
Honduras by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin on the island of San Andres this afternoon or evening with
hurricane conditions possible there tonight or early Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in Nicaragua by late Monday and in the warning area in
Honduras by Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 9 to 13 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras.  Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of
Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during
the next day or two.  Swells will begin to reach the coasts of
Nicaragua and Honduras tonight and Monday.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Blake
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