[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 150555
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BULLETIN
Hurricane Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL312020
100 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS IOTA HAS STRENGTHENED INTO THE
THIRTEENTH HURRICANE OF THE 2020 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...
...IOTA EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE AS
APPROACHES CENTRAL AMERICA....


SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 77.0W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Providencia
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi
* The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Andres

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta
Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located
by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 13.0
North, longitude 77.0 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 5
mph (7 km/h).  A general westward motion is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, Iota will move across the southwest
Caribbean Sea today, pass near or over Providencia island on Monday,
and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras
Monday evening.

Reports from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts.  Rapid
strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and Iota is
forecast to be a major hurricane when it approaches Central America.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The latest data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the
minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Thursday:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, eastern Guatemala, southern Belize: 8
to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30
inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast
Nicaragua into northern Honduras.

Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200
mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

El Salvador, southern Nicaragua and southern Honduras: 2 to 4 inches
(50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches (150 mm).

Jamaica: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm).

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected on the island of
Providencia by late Sunday night with tropical storm conditions
expected beginning Sunday evening. Hurricane conditions are
expected within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua and
Honduras by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin on the island of San Andres late Sunday or Sunday night with
hurricane conditions possible there Sunday night or early Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in Nicaragua by late Monday and in the warning area in
Honduras by Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 9 to 13 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras.  Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of
Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during
the next day or two.  Swells will begin to reach the coasts of
Nicaragua and Honduras on Monday.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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