[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 150236
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL302020
300 AM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020

Theta remains a highly sheared but resilient tropical cyclone with
little change in its satellite appearance since the previous
advisory. A persistent band of deep convection to the southeast of
Theta remains within about 60 n mi of the storm center, despite a
hostile environment characterized by dry mid-level air and 40-50 kt
of northerly shear. Unfortunately, several scatterometer passes this
evening missed the core of the cyclone. Since the satellite
presentation is generally unchanged from earlier today, the initial
intensity is held at 35 kt, which is consistent with a T2.5 Dvorak
classification received from TAFB.

Strong northerly shear and continued dry air entrainment will
eventually take a toll on Theta, but recent satellite trends and the
latest GFS simulated satellite imagery suggest that the cyclone
could remain tropical a little longer than previously forecast. The
latest NHC intensity forecast keeps Theta as a 35-kt tropical storm
at 12 h before weakening it into a remnant low by 24 h. This follows
the consensus of the latest intensity guidance. Thereafter,
continued weakening is expected through its dissipation early next
week.

Theta is still moving eastward at around 4 kt. The cyclone should
begin turning northeastward later today, and then accelerate
north-northeastward on Monday as the shallow remnant low is steered
by a low-level ridge centered over northwestern Africa. The remains
of Theta are forecast to open up into a trough and dissipate by 60 h
ahead of an approaching cold front over the northeastern Atlantic.
The latest NHC track forecast is adjusted slightly to the left of
the previous one, which generally follows the latest track consensus
aids. On the forecast track, the remnant low of Theta is expected to
pass near the island of Madeira late Sunday night or early Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 31.7N  18.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 31.9N  18.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 32.6N  17.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/1200Z 34.2N  17.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/0000Z 36.7N  15.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net