[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 150232
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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Iota Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL312020
1000 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

...IOTA ALMOST A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA
AND HONDURAS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 77.0W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Nicaragua has upgraded the Hurricane Watch to a
Hurricane Warning from Sandy Bay Sirpi to the Honduras/Nicaragua
border and issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Sandy Bay Sirpi to
Bluefields.

The government of Honduras has upgraded the Hurricane Watch to a
Hurricane Warning from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Punta
Patuca, and has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical
Storm Warning from Punta Patuca to Punta Castilla.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Providencia
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi
* The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Andres

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta
Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was
located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 77.0 West. Iota is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h).  A general westward
motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track,
Iota will move across the southwest Caribbean Sea tonight and
Sunday, pass near or over Providencia island on Monday and approach
the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras Monday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or two,
and Iota is forecast to be a major hurricane when it approaches
Central America.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Thursday:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, eastern Guatemala, southern Belize: 8
to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30
inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast
Nicaragua into northern Honduras.

Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200
mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

El Salvador, southern Nicaragua and southern Honduras: 2 to 4 inches
(50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches (150 mm).

Jamaica: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm).

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected on the island of
Providencia by late Sunday night with tropical storm conditions
expected beginning Sunday evening. Hurricane conditions are
expected within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua and
Honduras by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin on the island of San Andres late Sunday or Sunday night with
hurricane conditions possible there Sunday night or early Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in Nicaragua by late Monday and in the warning area in
Honduras by Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 9 to 13 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras.  Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of
Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during
the next day or two.  Swells will begin to reach the coasts of
Nicaragua and Honduras on Monday.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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