[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 142054
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Iota Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL312020
400 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

...IOTA STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...RISK OF DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS IN
CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINNING MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 76.5W
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Colombia has issued a Hurricane Warning for
the island of Providencia, and a Hurricane Watch for the island of
San Andres.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Providencia

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi
* The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border
* San Andres

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta
Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was
located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 76.5 West. Iota is
moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A westward
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected to begin
very soon and continue through Monday night. On the forecast
track, Iota will move across the southwest Caribbean Sea tonight
and Sunday, pass near or over Providencia island on Monday and
approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras
Monday afternoon or evening.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95
km/h) with higher gusts.  Steady to rapid strengthening is
expected during the next day or two, and Iota is forecast to be at
or near major hurricane strength when it approaches Central
America.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft data is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall:   Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Thursday:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, eastern Guatemala, southern Belize: 8
to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30
inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast
Nicaragua into northern Honduras.

Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200
mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

El Salvador, southern Nicaragua and southern Honduras: 2 to 4 inches
(50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches (150 mm).

Jamaica: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm)

Wind:  Hurricane conditions are expected on the island of
Providencia by late Sunday night with tropical storm conditions
expected beginning Sunday evening. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua and
Honduras by late Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Monday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin
on the island of San Andres late Sunday or Sunday night with
hurricane conditions possible Sunday night or early Monday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of
Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during
the next day or two.  Swells will begin to reach the coasts of
Nicaragua and Honduras on Monday.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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