[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 131453
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirty-One Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL312020
1100 AM EDT Fri Nov 13 2020

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND APPROACH CENTRAL AMERICA AS A
HURRICANE EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 74.3W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warning in effect.

Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of
this system.  A Hurricane Watch may be required for a portion of
that area tonight.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Thirty-One was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 74.3
West. The depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph
(11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through early
Saturday.  A westward to west-northwestward motion at a slightly
faster forward speed is expected to begin by late Saturday and
continue through early Monday. On the forecast track, the system
will move across the central Caribbean Sea during the next day or
so, and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras
late Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm
later today or tonight.  Additional strengthening is likely over
the weekend, and the system could be near major hurricane strength
when it approaches Central America.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall:   Through Wednesday morning, Tropical Depression
Thirty-One is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain, with local
12 inch totals, across portions of northern Columbia, Panama and
Costa Rica. Across Jamaica and southern Haiti, 2 to 4 inches are
expected, with local amounts up to 6 inches. Across remaining
sections of Central America, the system has the potential to produce
20 to 30 inches of rain with a focus across northern Nicaragua and
Honduras. This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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