[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122337
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Nov 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 31.6N 80.6W at 12/2100 UTC or
about 80 nm SSW of Charleston, South Carolina, moving NE at 16
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are
currently 13 ft with 12 ft seas extending 120 nm in the NE
quadrant and 80 nm in the SE quadrant. Scattered moderate
convection remains off the coast of South Carolina from 30N to
34N between 76W to 79W. Eta is expected to move faster in a
north-northeastward to northeastward direction over the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, Eta is expected to
accelerate over the western Atlantic and move parallel to, but
offshore of the Carolinas tonight and early Friday before heading
well east of the Mid- Atlantic coast by late Friday. Little
change in strength is forecast through early Friday. Eta could
re- intensify as a non- tropical cyclone late Friday or Friday
night before becoming absorbed by a larger non- tropical cyclone
on Saturday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for
more details.

Tropical Storm Theta is centered near 31.7N 27.4W at 12/2100 UTC,
or about 280 nm S of the Azores, moving E at 10 kt. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Scattered moderate convection
is in the NW quadrant from 31N to 34N between 25W to 28W. Theta
will continue moving east for the next day or so, followed by a
turn to the east-southeast along with a slowing of the forward
motion. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 36
hours. Weakening is expected over the weekend, and Theta is
forecast to become a remnant low on Sunday. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

A 1008 mb low pressure is in the central Caribbean near 15N73W
associated with a tropical wave with axis near 73W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 18N
between 69W and 78W, including southern Hispaniola. Satellite
imagery indicates that the disturbance is gradually becoming better
organized, and a tropical depression will likely form within the
next couple of days as it moves slowly westward over the central
and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this
system is expected to bring heavy rainfall along with possible
flash flooding to portions of Hispaniola over the next day or so.
For more detailed information, refer to products issued by your
local weather office. There is a high chance this system will
evolve into a tropical cyclone within the next two days. For more
detailed information, refer to products issued by your local
weather office and the latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 53W/54W from
17N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave at this time.

See the Special Features section for information on the central
Caribbean tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N16W to 10N18W. The ITCZ continues from 10N18W to 05N35W to
08N54W. The ITCZ continues west of a tropical wave near 10N57W to
the coast of Venezuela near 10N63W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is from 02N-09N between 13W-44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure is dominating most of the basin with a dying cold
front extending into the NE Gulf. Benign weather prevails with
moderate WNW winds are noted in the NW Gulf in the wake of
Tropical Storm Eta. Shallow moisture continues to support some
dense fog in the north- central and NW Gulf. Otherwise, light to
gentle winds are noted across the basin. Seas range 3-6 ft.

Eta will continue to move farther NE tonight, while marine
conditions across the NE Gulf improve. A stationary front across
the north central Gulf will lift north and dissipate through Sat.
A cold front will move into the northern Gulf late Sun, and
reach the central Gulf by late Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features section on the system with a high chance
of development in the central Caribbean.

Outside of the tropical wave, showers are moving across the
Lesser Antilles with isolated thunderstorms across the NW
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades are noted in the eastern
Caribbean/east of the tropical wave. Light to gentle winds
prevail elsewhere over the western basin. The monsoon trough
extends off the coast of Colombia near 11N73W to the coast of
Costa Rica near 10N83W. Scattered moderate convection is mostly
off the Panama and Costa Rica coast, S of 11N between 77W to 83W.
Seas range 3-6 ft with upwards of 7 ft near the Mona Passage.

Low pressure near associated with a tropical wave will move
westward across the central Caribbean tonight and Fri, then
across the western Caribbean Fri night through Mon. This system
has a high possibility of tropical cyclone development and a
tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of
days. Expect increasing winds, seas and active weather north
through northeast of the developing low through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
TS Eta and TS Theta.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms from Eta continue to move
eastward across the western Atlantic, off the coast of Florida,
from 26N to 31N between 76W to 80W. Otherwise, high pressure
extends across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1026 mb high
near 34N56W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted across
the basin with fresh to strong SSE winds off the coast of
Florida. Seas range 6-8 ft with upwards of 10 ft off the north-
central Florida coast.

Tropical Storm Eta will continue to move NE and exit to the
north of the area tonight. Elsewhere, fresh to strong SE winds
and associated seas will decrease through Fri as Eta moves
northeastward. A trough will move to the north of the Leeward and
Virgin Islands Sat through Mon.

$$
AReinhart
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