[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT34 KNHC 111758
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 45A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
100 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT ETA HAS
WEAKENED BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 83.7W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SSW OF TARPON SPRINGS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach to Suwanee River Florida, including Tampa Bay
and Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Steinhatchee River to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
this case within 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in this case within 24 hours. For a depiction of areas
at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of Eta.  Additional warnings may be required along
portions of the Florida Peninsula today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located by reconnaissance aircraft, Doppler radars, and satellites
near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 83.7 West. Eta is moving toward
the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Thursday.  On the forecast track,
the center of Eta will move closer to but just offshore of the coast
of west-central coast of Florida today and tonight, and move inland
over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday.  Eta
is expected to move northeastward into the western Atlantic late
Thursday or early Friday.

Data from the aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate
that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110
km/h) with higher gusts.  Slow weakening is expected as Eta
approaches the west coast of Florida tonight, followed by rapid
weakening after landfall occurs on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km),
mainly northeast through southeast of the center. A wind gust to 40
mph (64 km/h) was recently reported in Venice Beach, Florida, while
a gust to 45 mph (72 km/h) was reported by a buoy just offshore
Venice Beach.

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the
reconnaissance aircraft was 990 mb (29.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River to Boca Grande, FL including Tampa Bay...3-5 ft
Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte
Harbor...2-4 ft
Steinhatchee River to Anclote River...2-4 ft
Bonita Beach to Flamingo...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL:  Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall totals:

Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) today, with
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm).

West and central Florida: through Friday, 2 to 4 inches, with
maximum storm total accumulations of 6 inches.

North and South Florida: an additional 1 to 2 inches, with isolated
maximum storm total accumulations of 4 inches in North Florida and
20 inches in South Florida.

Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba on
Wednesday, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South
Florida, especially across previously inundated areas.  Flash,
urban, and isolated minor river flooding is expected across portions
of West and North Florida through Friday.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area tonight
and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
Dry Tortugas through early afternoon. Tropical storm conditions will
end across the Dry Tortugas this afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the
Florida west coast by this afternoon.  Tropical Storm conditions are
possible in the watch area along the Florida Big Bend region by
Thursday.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible through tonight over parts
of western and central Florida.

SURF:  Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys
during the next day or so.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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