[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT34 KNHC 110539
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 43A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
100 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

...ETA'S RAIN BANDS MOVING OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AND
APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 84.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee River Florida, including Tampa Bay
and Charlotte Harbor

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of Eta.  Additional warnings may be required along
portions of the Florida Gulf coast today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 84.4 West. Eta is moving
toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A motion toward the
north-northeast is forecast through Thursday. On the forecast track
the center of Eta will move closer to but offshore of the southwest
coast of Florida today, approach the west-central coast of Florida
Wednesday night, and move inland over the northern portion of the
Florida peninsula on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some additional strengthening is forecast today, and Eta
could be near hurricane strength late this morning. Gradual
weakening is expected to begin Wednesday night or early Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center. Buoy 42026 from the University of South Florida
located about 75 miles northeast of the center of Eta recently
reported sustained winds of 36 mph (57 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph
(86 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on earlier NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft data is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Steinhatchee River to Bonita Beach, FL including Tampa Bay and
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Flamingo, FL...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL:  Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall
overnight:

Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm).

South Florida: Isolated additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 15 to 20
inches.

Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through
Friday:

West Florida into the eastern Florida Panhandle and portions of
North Florida: 1 to 3 inches, with isolated totals of 5 inches.

Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba through
tonight, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South
Florida tonight, especially across previously inundated areas, and
eventually across portions of west Florida, the eastern Florida
Panhandle, and north Florida through Friday.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas
through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast by late
Wednesday.  Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch
area along the Florida Big Bend region by Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area in Cuba overnight.

SURF:  Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys
during the next day or so.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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