[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 100848
TCDAT5

Subtropical Storm Theta Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL302020
900 AM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020

Theta has generally changed little during the past several hours.
The cyclone has some characteristics of a tropical cyclone,
including a central dense overcast and a relatively small radius of
maximum wind.  However, the storm is still entangled with an
upper-level trough, and based on all of these factors, Theta is
being maintained as a subtropical storm.  The initial wind speed
remains 45 kt, which is at the high end of the satellite intensity
estimates.

The storm is moving due eastward at about 10 kt.  The track
forecast reasoning seems fairly straightforward.  A trough to the
north of the subtropical storm is expected to lift out, and Theta
should be steered eastward to east-northeastward during the next
several days on the north side of a mid-level ridge.  This motion
should take the cyclone across the subtropical eastern Atlantic
throughout the forecast period.  The models are in fairly good
agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the various
consensus aids.

Theta should transition to a tropical storm later today as it
separates from the upper-level trough.  Little change in intensity
is expected during the next several days due to mixed environmental
conditions.  Although Theta will be tracking over progressively
cooler SSTs and within moderate wind shear conditions, the air mass
is expected to remain unstable, which should be supportive of deep
convection.  The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
one and lies near the high end of the model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0900Z 28.8N  39.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 28.9N  37.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 29.2N  35.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  11/1800Z 29.7N  33.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  12/0600Z 30.4N  31.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  12/1800Z 31.0N  29.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  13/0600Z 31.4N  26.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  14/0600Z 32.2N  22.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  15/0600Z 33.1N  19.9W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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