[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091006
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Nov 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 25.2N 82.0W at 09/0900 UTC
or 40 nm NNW of Key West Florida moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is within 270 nm north of the center. Eta is
forecast to become a hurricane when it moves over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico. Heavy rainfall today over South Florida and the
Bahamas could lead to additional flooding. Please read the latest
NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more
details.

West Atlantic Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between Eta and
high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic states is resulting in a
large area of strong to near gale force easterly winds across the
western Atlantic, west of 67W. Within this area, gale force winds
are currently occurring west of 76W and north of 27N. The gale
warning will remain in effect for this area through this evening,
before winds diminish below gale force tonight. Please read the
latest NHC High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

North Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1007 mb low is currently near
28N45W and is producing winds of 20-25 kt from 26N-31N between
41W- 48W. Shower and thunderstorm activity is beginning to show
some signs of organization. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 25N-32N between 35W-45W. The low has a medium
chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical cyclone during
the next 48 hours while the system moves eastward. Regardless of
whether it becomes tropical, the low is forecast to produce gale
force winds Tuesday morning north of 26N and east of 42W. See the
latest NHC High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the far eastern Caribbean with axis near
62W, moving W at 10 kt. A surface trough is associated with this
tropical wave, as noted in a recent ASCAT pass. Fresh SE winds are
east of the wave axis. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is along and within 360 nm east of the wave axis from
12N-18N. Expect enhanced rainfall this morning over portions of
the Windward and Leeward Islands. This tropical wave is forecast
to move over the central Caribbean Sea, where an area of low
pressure could form in a couple of days. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical
depression could form late this week or over the weekend while the
system moves slowly westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of West Africa near
12N16W to 08N18W. The ITCZ continues from 08N18W to 05N23W to
05N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-10N between
30W- 47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Eta made landfall in the middle Florida Keys
around 11 pm EST with maximum winds of about 55 kt. Since then it
has moved across Florida Bay and is now located off the coast of
extreme southwestern Florida. A large upper-level low centered
over T.S. Eta is aiding in wrapping dry air into the circulation
from the southwest quadrant. Scattered showers associated with Eta
cover the SE Gulf, east of 84W from 22N-29N. Fresh to strong NE
winds are over the eastern Gulf, east of 90W, with tropical storm
force winds near the Florida Keys. For more details on Eta, please
see the Special Features section above.

West of 90W, mainly gentle wind speeds prevail. The NW Gulf has
seas of 4 to 6 ft, while the SW Gulf seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail.
No significant precipitation is seen west of 85W.

Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 25.2N 82.0W early this
morning. Eta will move to 24.6N 83.7W this afternoon, 23.8N 84.7W
Tue morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 23.9N 85.1W Tue
afternoon, 24.8N 85.1W Wed morning, 26.0N 85.0W Wed afternoon, and
weaken to a tropical storm near 26.7N 84.7W Thu morning. Eta will
change little in intensity as it moves to near 27.8N 84.2W early
Fri. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Wed and become
stationary over the northern Gulf through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Eta is centered off the coast of southwestern
Florida. A large upper- level low centered over T.S. Eta extends
upper- level troughing over the NW Caribbean. An upper-level ridge
covers the remainder of the Caribbean. Due to the positioning of
these upper- level features, strong upper-level diffluence and
divergence are occurring over the southeast Bahamas, Hispaniola
and Puerto Rico. As a result, scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 14N-21N between the British
Virgin Islands and the eastern Dominican Republic, including near
and over Puerto Rico. Scattered moderate convection is also seen
east and south of Jamaica from 14N-19N between 75W-78W. Scattered
moderate convection is over northern Nicaragua and southern
Honduras due to the east Pacific monsoon trough. Fresh winds
prevail over the western Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are
noted elsewhere.

Tropical Storm Eta near 25.2N 82.0W 992 mb at 4 AM EST moving WNW
at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Eta will
move to 24.6N 83.7W this afternoon, 23.8N 84.7W Tue morning,
strengthen to a hurricane near 23.9N 85.1W Tue afternoon, 24.8N
85.1W Wed morning, 26.0N 85.0W Wed afternoon, and weaken to a
tropical storm near 26.7N 84.7W Thu morning. Eta will change
little in intensity as it moves to near 27.8N 84.2W early Fri. A
tropical wave, currently in the far eastern Caribbean, will reach
the central Caribbean in a few days with the possibility for low
pressure to develop from it.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Tropical Storm Eta is centered just off the coast of southwest
Florida. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
directly associated with Eta extends between the NW Bahamas and
South Florida. Scattered moderate convection also extends offshore
central and northern Florida. Although the tropical storm force
winds associated with Eta extend to 27N west of 78W, gale force E
winds of 35 kt due to a tight pressure gradient extend northward
N of 27N between 76W-81W. Strong to near gale force winds are
elsewhere W of 65W.

Farther east, a 1007 mb low near 28N45W is being monitored for
tropical cyclone potential. See the Special Features section
above for details. A 1026 mb high is centered near 33N21W.

Tropical Storm Eta near 25.2N 82.0W 992 mb at 4 AM EST moving WNW
at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Eta will
move to 24.6N 83.7W this afternoon, 23.8N 84.7W Tue morning,
strengthen to a hurricane near 23.9N 85.1W Tue afternoon, 24.8N
85.1W Wed morning, 26.0N 85.0W Wed afternoon, and weaken to a
tropical storm near 26.7N 84.7W Thu morning. Eta will change
little in intensity as it moves to near 27.8N 84.2W early Fri.
Strong to near gale winds will prevail over the western Atlantic
the next couple of days, with gale force winds prevailing off the
coast of northern Florida today and tonight. These winds will
maintain large seas in the western Atlantic through Tue before
gradually subsiding through late Thu night.

$$
AL
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net