[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081823
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Nov 8 2020

Corrected to add gale warning in Special Features Section

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 22.5N 79.2W at 08/1500 UTC or
50 nm W of Camaguey Cuba, moving N at 12 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt
with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate convection is from 20N to
29N between 69W and 81W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection and thunderstorms are from 12N to 20N between 67W and
81W, including portions of Jamaica, Cuba, the Windward Passage
and Hispaniola. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will
continue to move over the Florida Straits between Cuba and the
Bahamas today, pass near or over the Florida Keys tonight and
early Monday, and be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late
Monday and Tuesday. Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 48 hours, and Eta could become a hurricane before it
reaches the Florida Keys tonight. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml
and Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details.

Southwest North Atlantic gale warning...The pressure gradient
between Eta and high pressure N of the region, over the Mid-
Atlantic states, is resulting in a large area of strong to near
gale force easterly winds across the western Atlantic, west of
67W. These winds are forecast to increase to gale force this
evening and prevail through Mon morning with seas building up to
20-22 ft. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

Heavy rainfall will continue across portions of Cuba, Jamaica, the
Bahamas and southern Florida. Significant, life-threatening flash
and river flooding is possible in Cuba, along with landslides in
areas of higher terrain, especially in central Cuba. Flash and
urban flooding are also possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas and
South Florida.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 06N to 18N with axis near 60W,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 05N-12N between 57W and 63W, including
Venezuela and Guyana.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea, Africa near
10N14W SW to 08N18W. The ITCZ continues from 08N18W to 06N30W to
08N43W to 10N56W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 09N
between 14W and 20W, from 01N to 11N between 23W and 43W, and from
10N to 17N between 44W and 52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong N to NE winds are in the eastern half of the Gulf
this morning ahead of Tropical Storm Eta, which is along the
coast of Cuba near 22.5N 79.2W at 10 AM EST. Eta will move to
near 24.1N 79.8W this evening, then turn westward on Mon morning
as it is near 24.5N 82.4W with maximum sustained winds 60 kt
gusts 75 kt and maintain this intensity as it moves to near 23.9N
84.1W Mon evening. Eta then will move to near 23.8N 85.0W Tue
morning, to near 24.0N 85.5W Tue evening and to near 24.9N 85.2W
Wed morning. Eta will begin to weaken as it reaches near 26.2N
84.5W Thu morning with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt.
Expect for marine conditions to deteriorate, with increasing winds
and seas as Tropical Storm Eta moves into the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico today through Mon. Expect heavy rainfall over the
eastern half of the basin through at least Thu night.

A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Wed and become stationary
over the northern Gulf through Fri. Long-period swell will impact
the area through the upcoming week.

Please see Special Features section for more information on
Tropical Storm Eta.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Eta is along the coast of Cuba near 22.5N 79.2W at
10 AM EST. However, the outer rainbands of Eta are still
supporting scattered moderate to isolate strong convection across
the central Caribbean, including Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica and the
Windward Passage. Latest scatterometer data show moderate to fresh
SW to W winds across the Caribbean waters W of 74W. Seas over
southern-central Cuba adjacent waters are up to 10 ft.

Scattered showers are over portions of Puerto Rico associated
with the rainbands of Eta. Similar weather is expected to prevail
through Thu as a tropical wave, currently with axis near 60W moves
across the E Caribbean waters.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features section for more information on
Tropical Storm Eta.

Tropical Storm Eta is along the coast of Cuba near 22.5N 79.2W at
10 AM EST moving NE at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt
with gusts to 65 kt. Eta will move to near 24.1N 79.8W this
evening, then turn westward on Mon morning as it nears 24.5N 82.4W
with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Eta will maintain
intensity as it moves across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico to
near 23.9N 84.1W Mon evening, to near 23.8N 85.0W Tue morning, to
near 24.0N 85.5W and track north-northeastward over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico through Thu while weakening. Tropical storm conditions
are expected between Cuba and the Bahamas through early Mon.
Large seas are expected in the western Atlantic through Tue before
gradually subsiding through Thu night.

The pressure gradient between Eta and high pressure N of the
region, over the Mid-Atlantic states, is resulting in a large
area of strong to near gale force easterly winds across the
western Atlantic, west of 67W. These winds are forecast to
increase to gale force this evening and prevail through Mon
morning with seas building up to 20-22 ft just N of the NW
Bahamas and E of central Florida. Tropical Storm force winds are
expected to extend farther N of Eta's center as its wind field
greatly expands.

$$
Ramos
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