[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT34 KNHC 081152
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
700 AM EST Sun Nov 08 2020

...ETA INLAND OVER EAST-CENTRAL CUBA...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODS AND
STRONG WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA, FLORIDA, AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 79.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SW OF CANAGUA CUBA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, including
Biscayne Bay
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence
* Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Englewood
including Florida Bay
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida coast from north of Englewood to Anna Maria Island.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor
the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm Watches or
Warnings could be required for some of these areas on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located over Cuba near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 79.1 West. Eta
is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A turn
toward the north and northwest at a slower forward speed is expected
later today and tonight, followed by a westward motion on Monday. On
the forecast track, the center of Eta will continue to move across
east-central Cuba during the next few hours and then move over the
Florida Straits later this morning. Eta is forecast to pass near or
over the Florida Keys tonight and early Monday, and be over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the
next few hours as Eta moves across Cuba. Re-strengthening is
forecast after the storm moves over the Atlantic Ocean, and Eta is
forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves near or over
the Florida Keys.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL:  Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday morning:

Jamaica: An additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of Cuba: an additional 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (635 mm).

The Bahamas: an additional 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including
the Keys: 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm), isolated maximum totals of
18 inches (450 mm).

Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be
possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Jamaica, the
Bahamas, and Southern Florida.  Minor river flooding is also
possible for Central Florida.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.  Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...2-4 ft
Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida
Bay...2-4 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound...2-3 ft
Golden Beach to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the
warning areas in Cuba during the next several hours and in the
northwestern Bahamas through tonight.  Tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin in south Florida and the Florida Keys
this afternoon or evening, and hurricane conditions are possible in
the hurricane watch area in Florida tonight and early Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area in Cuba during the next few hours and in the watch area in
Florida by early Monday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur this evening through Monday
over south Florida and the Keys.

SURF:  Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days.  Swells will gradually
subside along the south coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands and
Jamaica later today.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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