[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071806
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Nov 7 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eta has regained tropical storm strength as the center reforms to
the NE near an area of deep convection. AT 07/1800 UTC, Tropical
Storm Eta is centered near 20.0N 81.1W or 40 nm N of Grand Cayman
moving NE at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed has increased to 50 kt with gusts to
60 kt. Satellite imagery shows a large area of moderate to strong
convection within 150 nm E and 60 nm W semicircles of Eta. On the
forecast track, the center of Eta will move away from the Cayman
Islands later today, be near central Cuba tonight and Sunday, and
near the Florida Keys or south Florida Sunday night and Monday. A
tropical Storm warning is in effect for South Florida and the
Florida Keys. Some additional strengthening is expected through
Sunday night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more
details.

Heavy rainfall will continue across the Cayman Islands, portions
of Cuba and Jamaica, and will spread north into the Bahamas and
southern Florida. Rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches (200
to 400 mm) with isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (650
mm) are expected in the Cayman Island and portions of Cuba.
Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be
possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher
terrain, especially in central Cuba. Flash and urban flooding
will also be possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the
Bahamas, and Southern Florida.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W from 06N-18N, moving
westward 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted on either side of the wave axis from 09N-14N
between 50W-59W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are associated
with the wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 70W, moving westward 10 to 15
kt. An area of moderate to isolated strong convection is seen
ahead of the wave axis from 11N-15.5N between 70W-75W. A diffluent
pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through Guinea and
extends to near 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W to 06N30W
to 08N40W to 10N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is observed from 02N-06N between 24W-29W, and from 06N-11N between
32W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section for more information on
recently upgraded Tropical Storm Eta. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin in the SE Gulf, including the Straits of
Florida, on Sun. The tropical storm conditions will spread
northward across the eastern Gulf through Wed. A band of showers
is noted over the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf. Mosaic
Doppler radar from the SE U.S. shows increasing shower and
thunderstorm activity over South Florida.

Currently, fresh to strong NE-E winds prevail over the eastern
Gulf, supported by the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the eastern United States, and Tropical Storm Eta in the
Caribbean, over the Cayman Islands. Gentle to moderate winds are
over the remainder of the Gulf waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Feature section for more information on Tropical
Storm Eta. Eta will move north of the area late Sun, with conditions
starting to improve into early next week.

Fresh to strong winds associated with the cyclonic circulation of
Eta extend farther S to about 15N based on recent scatterometer
data. Mainly moderate trade winds dominate the eastern Caribbean
in the wake of a tropical wave located along 70W. This wave will
move west and gradually become absorbed in the broadening
circulation of Eta Sun through Mon, and spread moisture across the
Greater Antilles.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Feature section for more information on Tropical
Storm Eta. Tropical storm conditions are expected between Cuba
and the Bahamas tonight through Mon. Large seas are expected in
the western Atlantic Sat through Tue.

The pressure gradient between Eta and high pressure N of the region,
over the Mid-Atlantic states, is resulting in a large area of fresh
to strong easterly winds N of 22N W of 70W. These winds are forecast
to persist Sun and Sun night, with seas building up to 20-22 ft
just N of the NW Bahamas and E of central Florida. Tropical Storm
force winds are expected to extend farther N of Eta's center as
its wind field greatly expands.

To the east, a surface trough is analyzed from 30N49W to a 1014 mb
low pressure located near 26N51W, then it continues SW to near
20N55W. Scattered moderate convection and mainly light and
variable winds are noted near these two features. Another surface
trough extends from 24N34W to 20N37W.

$$
GR
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