[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 071800
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Eta Special Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
100 PM EST Sat Nov 07 2020

This special advisory is being issued to update the first 36 h of
the intensity forecast of Eta.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft found a better defined center north of the Cayman
Islands with flight-level and SFMR winds supporting an initial
intensity of 50 kt, along with a central pressure of 994 mb.  The
updated intensity forecast shows a little more intensification
during the first 12 h, although it is unclear how much
intensification may occur due to strong vertical shear and
interaction with a developing upper-level low nearby.

No changes were made to the forecast track.  The first 36 h of the
wind radii were adjusted for the new intensity forecast.

Note that this special advisory is being issued in lieu of the 100
PM EST (1800 UTC) intermediate advisory.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will continue across the Cayman Islands, portions
of Cuba and Jamaica, and will spread north into the Bahamas and
southern Florida. This rain may result in significant, life-
threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash
and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands,
Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern Florida.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected today and Sunday in
portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, and the northwestern Bahamas,
where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected by late Sunday in the
Florida Keys and along portions of the southeast Florida coast,
where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm
conditions are possible elsewhere in portions of southern and
central Florida beginning Sunday night, where a Tropical Storm Watch
is in effect. Additional Tropical Storm Warnings will likely be
needed later today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1800Z 20.0N  81.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 20.8N  80.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 22.5N  79.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 36H  09/0000Z 23.8N  79.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  09/1200Z 25.0N  80.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  10/0000Z 25.8N  81.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  10/1200Z 26.2N  83.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  11/1200Z 26.5N  84.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  12/1200Z 28.5N  84.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net