[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT34 KNHC 070541
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
1200 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2020

...ETA FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 85.7W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cayman Islands
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa y Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth.
* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita
Beach
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Keys
* Florida Bay
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings
for heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in
those areas should continue to monitor the depression.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm
Watches could be required for some of these areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), satellite data indicate that the the
center of Tropical Depression Eta was located near latitude 17.9
North, longitude 85.7 West. The depression is moving toward the
northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northeastward motion at a faster
forward speed is expected through early Sunday. A turn toward the
north and northwest are expected by Sunday afternoon. On the
forecast track, the center of Eta will approach the Cayman Islands
later today, be near central Cuba tonight and Sunday, and near the
Florida Keys or south Florida late Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again later today,
with further strengthening likely through Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL:  Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Wednesday morning:

Portions of Central America: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125
mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern
Honduras and eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to
125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400
mm), isolated maximum totals of 25 inches (650 mm).

The Bahamas and Southern Florida, including the Keys:  5 to 10
inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380
mm).

The threat of life-threatening flooding will continue across
portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain. Significant, life-threatening flash and river
flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for
the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Bahamas, and
southern Florida.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Cuba near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.  Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Marco Island, FL to North Miami Beach, FL including Biscayne
Bay...2-3 ft
Florida Keys...2-3 ft
North Miami Beach, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
this afternoon and evening, and in the warning area in Cuba tonight
and Sunday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
area in Cuba tonight and Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are also
possible in the northwestern Bahamas, south Florida, and the Florida
Keys within the watch area beginning Sunday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward
and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the southern coast of
Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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