[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052325
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Nov 5 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression ETA continues to produce heavy rains and
life-threatening flooding across sections of Central America, with
the strongest convection this afternoon occurring across Belize,
Guatemala, and portions of the Mexican Yucatan. The center of
Tropical Depression Eta, at 2100 UTC, remains inland over
Honduras near 15.7N 87.7W. Eta is moving toward the NNW at 8 mph.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum
sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt and occurring mainly
over water across the Gulf of Honduras. Clusters of scattered
moderate to strong convection prevail from Costa Rica to the
Yucatan Peninsula and the western Caribbean waters mainly west of
74W. The center of Eta is expected to move across northern coast
of Honduras tonight and over the Gulf of Honduras. Eta is forecast
to intensify and approach the Cayman Islands and western or
central Cuba this weekend.

Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for
more details. Rainfall may cause catastrophic, life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in
areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and
river flooding are possible in Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala,
Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, and southeastern Mexico.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 45W from 02N-
16N, is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are noted in the vicinity of the wave
mainly south of 10N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 59W, from 14N
southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered strong
convection is occurring along the ITCZ behind the wave from 09N
to 11.5N between 51W and 58W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 16N17W to 13N23W. The ITCZ continues from 13N23W to 06N42W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted off of
western Africa from 02.5N to 10.5N between 12W and 20W. Elsewhere
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms prevail south of the
boundaries between 04W-11W between 20W and 41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a high
pressure centered over the northwest Atlantic. Over the western
Gulf, scatterometer data depicted a surface trough that extends
from 29N94W to 22N94W. To the southeast, a shearline persists
from 24N80W to 22N87W. Fresh to strong easterly winds are noted
across most of the basin south of 27N, with seas of 6 to 10 ft,
while gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere.

Strong high pressure will maintain fresh to strong NE winds in
the  southeastern half of the basin, through early Friday. The
wind will remain fresh to strong in the eastern Gulf of Mexico
during the upcoming weekend. T.D. Eta will move from inland across
northern Honduras and emerge of the waters of the Gulf of Honduras
tonight, then continue NNE and strengthen to a tropical storm
near 18.1N 86.3W Fri afternoon, then continue northward across
west central through Sunday. Much uncertainty remains with the
future of Eta beyond this time. High pressure extending into the
region from the western Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong NE
winds over the eastern half of the basin through Sun. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the Straits of Florida Sun night
and Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the section above for details on T.D Eta.

Over the remainder of the basin, scatterometer data depicts
gentle to moderate trades. A surface trough extends across west
Hispaniola with scattered showers.

Tropical Depression Eta will exit land and move over water tonight
and reach near 16.4N 87.8W around midnight, then continue NNE and
gradually strengthen, reaching tropical storm strength near 18.1N
86.3W Fri afternoon, near 20.1N 83.1W Sat afternoon, then continue
northward across west central Cuba Sun. Much uncertainty remains
with the future of Eta beyond Sun as it interacts with an upper
level low pressure system.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical
waves moving across the basin.

A shearline extends from 29N54W to 24N69W to 24N80W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted along the shearline mainly west
of 60W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 29N50W to
24N54W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 25N
between 46W-52W. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere.

The center of the now T.D. Eta is expected to emerge over the
Gulf of Honduras by tonight, and will re-intensify into a
tropical cyclone on Fri in the NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong
winds are expected W of 70W this upcoming weekend and strong high
pressure dominates the western Atlantic. Tropical storm
conditions are possible between Cuba and the Bahamas Sun night and
Mon. Large seas are expected in the western Atlantic Sat through
Mon as strong to near gale force winds prevail.

The shearline will dissipate within the next 24 hours. A cold
front along about 31N will sink southward and enter the central
Atlantic waters tonight, accompanied by fresh to strong NE to E
winds and seas of 7-11 ft.

$$
Stripling
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