[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT34 KNHC 051450
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
900 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020

...ETA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 87.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SW OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue
warnings on heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and
interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.  Interests in Belize, western Cuba, and
the Cayman Islands should also monitor the progress of this system,
as Tropical Storm watches may be required later today or tonight
for portions of these areas.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was
located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 87.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue today.  A turn toward
the north, and then the northeast is forecast to occur tonight and
Friday.  On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to
move across northwestern Honduras through this afternoon, and
emerge over the Gulf of Honduras by tonight.  Eta is forecast to
approach the Cayman Islands and western or central Cuba this
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is likely through tonight.  After that,
Eta is forecast to intensify over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Tuesday morning:

Portions of Central America: An additional 10 to 15 inches (255 to
380 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in
eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated
maximum totals of 20 inches (510 mm).

Jamaica: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 10 to 20 inches (255 to
510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America.  Significant, life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands
and Cuba.  Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica
and southeast Mexico.

SURF:  Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next couple of days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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