[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

Tue Nov 3 20:44:23 CST 2020

WTNT34 KNHC 040244
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Eta Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
1000 PM EST Tue Nov 03 2020

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE ETA CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLASH
FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 84.0W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WSW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Laguna
de Perlas.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eta was located
near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 84.0 West. Eta is moving toward
the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster west-northwestward motion is
expected through early Thursday.  A turn toward the north, and then
north-northeast is forecast Thursday night and Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to move farther
inland over northern Nicaragua through Wednesday morning, and then
move across the central portions of Honduras through Thursday
morning.  The system is forecast to emerge over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea Thursday night or Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Rapid weakening will occur over the next couple
of days as the center of Eta moves farther inland over Nicaragua
and Honduras.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km). During the past couple of hours, a sustained wind of
49 mph (79 km/h) and a gust to 72 (116 km/h) were measured at the
Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND:  Significant wind damage is expected within the Hurricane
Warning area and also across inland areas of northeastern
Nicaragua.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical
Storm Warning area through tonight.

RAINFALL:  Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Sunday morning:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated maximum totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in northeast
Nicaragua and eastern Honduras.

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

El Salvador and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm)

Jamaica, Southern Haiti, the Cayman Islands: An additional 3 to 5
inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America.  Flash flooding and river
flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 5 to 10 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area.  Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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