[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

Tue Nov 3 02:54:00 CST 2020

WTNT34 KNHC 030853
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Eta Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
400 AM EST Tue Nov 03 2020

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ETA VERY NEAR THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING,
AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...

SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 83.1W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward
to Punta Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours or so.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
completed.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the eye of extremely dangerous Hurricane
Eta was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 83.1 West.  Eta
is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through this morning.  A
westward or west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by this
afternoon and continue through Thursday.  On the forecast track, the
center of Eta is expected to make landfall along the coast of
Nicaragua within the Hurricane Warning area in a few hours.  The
center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern
Nicaragua through Wednesday morning, and then move across central
portions of Honduras by Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Eta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Little change in strength is likely
before landfall.  Weakening will begin after the center moves
inland later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).  Sustained winds of 56 mph (90 km/h) with gusts to 91
mph (146 km/h) were reported at Puerto Cabezas Airport, Nicaragua.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 923 mb (27.26 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND:  Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall
moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area within the next
few hours, with tropical storm conditions already occuring in this
area.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical
Storm Warning area this morning, and hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area early today.  Tropical Storm
conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area later
today.

RAINFALL:  Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday evening:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas.

El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches
(75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm)

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America.  Flash flooding and river
flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 14 to 21 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area.  Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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