[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT34 KNHC 021146
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
700 AM EST Mon Nov 02 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS ETA QUICKLY
STRENGTHENING...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND
LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 81.1W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward
to Punta Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eta was located
near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 81.1 West.  Eta is moving toward
the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected
to continue through this morning.  A slower motion toward the
west-southwest is forecast by this afternoon and continuing into
Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to
approach the northeastern coast of Nicaragua this afternoon, and
make landfall within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua by
early Tuesday.  The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland
over northern Nicaragua through early Wednesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150
km/h) with higher gusts.  Continued strengthening, possibly rapid,
is expected through early Tuesday, and Eta could be a major
hurricane when landfall occurs by early Tuesday.  Weakening will
begin after the system moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 974 mb (28.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area beginning tonight, with tropical storm conditions possible in
this area by this afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions are expected
in the Tropical Storm Warning area by this afternoon, and
hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by
early Tuesday.  Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area by early Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday evening:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510
mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas.

El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches
(75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm)

This rainfall would lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America.  Flash flooding and river
flooding would be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area.  Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg
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