[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010525
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Nov 01 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm ETA, at 01/0300 UTC, is near 15.0N
74.2W. This position is also about 235 nm/435 km to the SE of
Kingston in Jamaica, and about 520 nm/965 km to the E of Cabo
Gracias A Dios that is along the border of Honduras and
Nicaragua. ETA is moving toward the W, or 275 degrees, 13 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. A
tropical wave is along 78W/79W, from 22N in Cuba southward. The
wave is moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The monsoon trough is
along 10N/11N from 73W in Colombia beyond Costa Rica.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
14N to 17N between 71W and 76W. Numerous strong is from 11N to
14N between 71W and 73W, from La Peninsula de la Guajira of
Colombia into the Caribbean Sea. Other widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong in clusters covers the rest of the Caribbean
Sea from 20N southward between 63W and 84W. A stationary front
curves through NW Cuba toward the western sections of Honduras.
Precipitation: isolated moderate from 84W westward in the NW
corner of the Caribbean Sea.

A Potential Heavy Rainfall event: A heavy rainfall event is
possible in parts of Central America, from late this weekend
into early next week, particularly in: western Panama, Costa
Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras. Flash floods and mudslides may be
possible, if heavy rainfall occurs. It is possible for the
rainfall threat to be enhanced by Tropical Storm ETA. Please,
refer to bulletins and forecasts that are provided by your
national meteorological service, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W from 11N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. This wave was re-positioned
at 01/0000 UTC because of scatterometer wind data.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 04N
to 08N between 37W and 40W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 09N18W. The ITCZ continues from
09N18W to 08N20W 06N30W 06N47W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 08N southward from 46W
eastward, and from 10N to 17N between 53W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through the NW Bahamas, to the Florida
Keys, to NW Cuba, and curving to western Honduras.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 150 nm to the
north of the stationary front.

High pressure has been building into the Gulf of Mexico to the
north and northwest of the front. A surface ridge passes through
Louisiana, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

A strong cold front will move into the northern Gulf of Mexico
on Sunday. The front will extend from the Straits of Florida to
the northern Yucatan Peninsula on Monday afternoon, and move to
the east of the area on Monday night. Fresh to strong northerly
winds are expected across the region from Sunday night through
Tuesday night. Strong winds are expected to continue in the SE
Gulf of Mexico, on Wednesday and Thursday, associated with
Tropical Storm ETA, in the Caribbean Sea.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The center of Tropical Storm ETA, at 01/0300 UTC, is near 15.0N
74.2W. This position is also about 235 nm/435 km to the SE of
Kingston in Jamaica, and about 520 nm/965 km to the E of Cabo
Gracias A Dios that is along the border of Honduras and
Nicaragua. ETA is moving toward the W, or 275 degrees, 13 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. A
tropical wave is along 78W/79W, from 22N in Cuba southward. The
wave is moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The monsoon trough is
along 10N/11N from 73W in Colombia beyond Costa Rica.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
14N to 17N between 71W and 76W. Numerous strong is from 11N to
14N between 71W and 73W, from La Peninsula de la Guajira of
Colombia into the Caribbean Sea. Other widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong in clusters covers the rest of the Caribbean
Sea from 20N southward between 63W and 84W. A stationary front
curves through NW Cuba toward the western sections of Honduras.
Precipitation: isolated moderate from 84W westward in the NW
corner of the Caribbean Sea.

A Potential Heavy Rainfall event: A heavy rainfall event is
possible in parts of Central America, from late this weekend
into early next week, particularly in: western Panama, Costa
Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras. Flash floods and mudslides may be
possible, if heavy rainfall occurs. It is possible for the
rainfall threat to be enhanced by Tropical Storm ETA. Please,
refer to bulletins and forecasts that are provided by your
national meteorological service, for more details.

Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Eta near 15.0N 74.2W 1005 mb at
11 PM EDT moving W at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts
45 kt. Eta will move to near 15.1N 76.4W early Sun, to near
15.3N 78.8W Sun evening within maximum sustained winds 50 kt
gusts 60 kt, then begin to track southwestward to near 15.2N
80.8W early Mon with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt,
strengthen to a hurricane near 14.7N 82.1W Mon evening with
maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt, to near 14.2N 82.8W
early Tue with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt, and
move inland Tue evening near 13.7N 83.7W with maximum sustained
wind 70 kt gusts 85 kt. Eta will move farther inland and weaken
to a tropical storm near 14.0N 85.5W late on Wed. A tropical
wave near 78W will move inland in Central America. Numerous
rainshowers and thunderstorms, some with gusty winds, will
accompany and precede this tropical wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is along 32N56w 30N60W 26N70W, to the NW
Bahamas, to the Florida Keys, to NW Cuba,
and curving to western Honduras. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 210 nm to the north of the
stationary front from 70W eastward. Isolated moderate is from
20N to the front from 68W westward.

A surface ridge extends from a 1028 mb high pressure center that
is near 36N12W, to a 1026 mb high pressure center that is near
32N27W, to 30N37W and to 29N57W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind
flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 18N northward, from 60W
eastward.

The current 31N61W-to-Florida Keys stationary front will
dissipate to the north of 26N by early Sunday afternoon. A
strong cold front will sweep across the forecast area, from
Sunday night through Tuesday, and will stall from near 27N65W to
the central Bahamas on Tuesday night, before dissipating on
Wednesday night. Strong to near gale-force north to northwest
winds and building seas are expected behind the front, and will
affect both the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida.

$$
mt
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