[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312349
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2318 UTC Tue Mar 31 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A developing low pressure center over Georgia will move over the
Atlantic tonight, bringing a cold front off the Florida coast
with it. Ahead of the front, SW gales will develop late tonight
N of 30N, and progress E from 76W as the front orients from S of
Bermuda into the SE Bahamas by tomorrow night. Some SW gales may
linger ahead of the front into early Thu as far E as 58W. Behind
the cold front, NW gales will develop N of 28N between 62W and
76W Wed into early Thu. Another round of NW gales may surge into
the area late Thu night through Fri night N of 29N between 62W
and 68W. Seas of up to 18 ft are expected over the gales area
starting late tonight and and continuing into at least Fri.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore
Waters Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 00N36W to Brazil near
02S44W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is along
the ITCZ from 05N-04S west of 28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 31/2100 UTC a cold front is over the N Gulf of Mexico from
the Florida panhandle near 30N85W to 29N88W to NE Mexico near
25N98W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 30 nm of
the front east of 88W. 20 kt NE winds are west of the front.
The NE Gulf has 20-25 kt SW surface winds ahead of the front.
The southern Gulf has mostly fair weather.

The cold front will move SE to exit the Gulf by tomorrow
evening. Ahead of the front, strong SW winds and seas of 8 to 9
ft are expected this afternoon over the far NE Gulf and continue
through the evening. Behind the front, strong NW to N winds are
expected over the same area tonight and Wed morning. Winds and
seas will diminish across much of the basin late tomorrow, and
remain relatively tranquil through the end of the week as high
pressure builds over the NE Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 kt trades cover the Caribbean with strongest winds along
the coast of N Colombia and weakest winds along the S coast of
Cuba. Scattered showers are over Costa Rica, W Panama, and N
Colombia.

Low pres moving E from the United States mainland will weaken
the ridge over the western Atlc for the remainder of the week,
allowing winds and seas in the Caribbean to subside. A cold front
will pass through the Yucatan Chanel Wed evening, then stall
along 20N Thu and dissipate by Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
the Gale Warning N of the Bahamas.

The Bermuda High is weaker - 1015 mb - and displaced
substantially farther south than usual at 21N60W. This is due to
a complex system of thee lows situated from 35N-40N and between
40W-60W. One frontal boundary extends from the low over Georgia
along around 32N to 55W. A second boundary begins as a warm front
in our area at 32N52W, extending southeastward, and transitions
to a dissipating cold front to 26N40W then to 30N35W. A third
boundary is a cold front that extends from 32N30W southwestward
to 16N50W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of
30N west of 70W.

Rapidly deepening low pressure currently over Georgia will head
ENE from the Carolinas tonight. An unusually strong cold front
for this time of year will push SE across the Bahamas tomorrow
and tomorrow night to extend from near 25N65W to near the
Windward Passage Thu. The front will eventually pass to the E pf
Puerto Rico by Sun.

$$
Landsea/McElroy
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