[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292311
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2311 UTC Sun Mar 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Tight pressure gradient between low pressure centered over
northern Colombia and high pressure centered between Bermuda and
the Bahamas will continue supporting nightly gales pulsing off
the coast of Colombia through Mon night. Seas may reach near 14
ft by each early morning. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC,
the latest Offshore Waters Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers, or
go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Liberia near 05N09W to 03N13W.
The ITCZ continues from 03N13W to 02S33W to the coast of Brazil
near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02S-00N
between 25W-28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is stalling from the mouth of the Mississippi River
to near the mouth of the Rio Grande. Buoy observations and data
from a recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh NE
winds north of the front off the Louisiana and Texas coasts, with
seas 4 to 6 ft. A trough is well defined in the scatterometer
data front reaching from near southeast Louisiana to
CoatzacoalcosMexico. The scatterometer pass also showed fresh
winds east of this trough over the south central Gulf. Seas buoy
and altimeter satellite data indicated seas of 3 to 5 ft over the
remainder of the Gulf. Moderate levels of smoke are evident on
satellite imagery emerging from agricultural fires in southern
Mexico over the southwest Gulf. This may be limiting surface
visibility to 2 to 4 nm in some areas. Moderate smoke may also be
apparent off the coast of western Cuba, extending into the
southeast Gulf. No significant weather is noted elsewhere across
the Gulf at this time.

For the forecast, high pressure ridge extending from the western
Atlantic across Florida and into the eastern Gulf will drift
southward and weaken over the next couple days. The stalling
front extending over the northwest and north central Gulf will
lift northward as a warm front tonight into Mon. A cold front
will move into the NW Gulf on Tue and cross the basin through Wed
night, with fresh northerly winds expected behind the front over
the northern Gulf. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will develop
near the northern Yucatan coast this evening as a thermal trough
develops over the Yucatan Peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
the Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia.

Recent scatterometer satellite data and buoy observations show
fresh to strong trade winds across much of the central Caribbean,
between high pressure centered east of the Bahamas and low
pressure anchored over northern Colombia. Near gale force winds
are evident off the coast of Colombia, where seas are estimated
to be near 13 ft. Seas are 8 to 12 ft elsewhere over the central
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds persist elsewhere across the
basin with 5 to 7 ft seas. Scattered showers embedded in the
trade wind flow are noted in regional radar across the Windward
Islands to the coast of Venezuela. A few showers are also noted
near Puerto Rico/USVI and west of Jamaica. These showers are fast
moving and low-topped. Very dry conditions persist in the mid and
upper levels of the atmosphere across the Caribbean, and no
other significant weather is observed at this time.

For the forecast, gale force winds will pulse near the coast of
Colombia tonight and Mon night. High pressure centered over the
east of the Bahamas will maintain fresh to strong trades
elsewhere over the south- central Caribbean through Tue. Fresh to
strong winds will pulse each evening through Tue over the Gulf
of Honduras. Winds and seas will diminish across the region Tue
night through late week as the ridge weakens north of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 65W, a ridge extends westward along 28N from 1024 mb
high pressure is centered near 28N66W. This is supporting
moderate to fresh trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas south of 22N
along the north coast of Hispaniola toward the entrances to the
Windward Passage. Moderate SW winds are evident off the coast of
northeast Florida. Light to gentle winds persist elsewhere with 3
to 5 ft seas. No significant weather is noted.

Regarding the forecast for the waters west of 65W, the high
pressure will drift southward and weaken over the next few days,
ahead of a cold front expected to move off the southeast U.S.
coast early Mon. The front will stall north of 27N Mon night into
Tue. The front will lift north by late Tue, ahead of a
strengthening low pressure expected to move off the southeast
U.S. coast Tue night. The low pressure will accelerate eastward
through Thu while pulling a cold front across the offshore
waters. Strong to near gale force winds are expected ahead of the
front north of 25N Tue night and Wed, with gale force winds
possible Wed into Wed night off northeast Florida. Increasing
northerly swell will support building seas across the area
through Fri.

Elsewhere farther east, a cold front from 32N42W to 26N58W is
associated with a gale center farther north over the north central
Atlantic. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas to 8 ft
follow the front north of 28N. Winds and seas will increase
through late Mon north of 28N between 30W and 50W as the low
pressure drifts southward. Farther east, 1019 mb high pressure
near 26N27W may dissipate through Mon ahead of the front, and a
weaker front moving through the Canary Islands. Because of the
weakened ridge, only moderate trade wind flow is evident farther
south over the tropical Atlantic waters, where seas are 5 to 7
ft. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas to 8 ft are noted
off the northern coast of Mauritania.

$$
Christensen
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