[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281721
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
121 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

Tight pressure gradient between low pressure centered over N
Colombia and high pressure centered between Bermuda and The
Bahamas will continue to supports nightly gales pulsing off the
coast of Colombia through at least Mon night. Seas may reach near
12 ft during each early morning. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST:
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS
National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 01N23W to 01N36W to
Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-07N
between 17W-20W. Scattered moderate convection is also from 01N-
04N between 30W-43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is over S Texas moving SE. A 1007 mb low is centered
over NE Mexico near 24N99W. A small area of broken to overcast
low clouds are N of Tampico Mexico. A 1024 mb high pressure is
centered over the W Atlantic near 30N68W producing 10-25 kt SE
surface flow over the Gulf of Mexico. Weakest winds are over the
NE Gulf, while strongest winds are over the W Gulf W of 90W. Radar
imagery shows the Gulf is void of precipitation. In the upper
levels, a ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 87W. Strong
subsidence covers the Gulf.

Weakening high pressure will ridge over the eastern Gulf from the
western Atlc through Sun. A weak cold front will reach the NW
Gulf late this afternoon, stall near the Texas and Louisiana
coasts Sun, and lift N as a warm front Mon. Strong SE winds will
affect the central and W Gulf today. Another stronger cold front
will enter the Gulf early Tue, the cross the N Gulf by Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the above Special Features section for information on
gales off the coast of Colombia.

An area of scattered showers are SW of Haiti from 16N-18N between
73W-76W. Radar imagery shows very sparse showers over Puerto Rico.
The Leeward Islands has more scattered showers. In the upper
levels, a ridge is over the W Caribbean and Central America W of
80W. The remainder of the Caribbean is under an upper level
trough. Strong subsidence covers the entire Caribbean.

The surface pressure gradient over the Caribbean will maintain
fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through
Tue. Gale force winds will pulse along the Colombian coast each
night through Mon night. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse
each night over the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1024 mb high pressure centered over the W Atlantic near 30N68W.
A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N50W to 26N54W to
25N60W to E Hispaniola near 19N69W. Scattered showers are N of
24N between 45W-52W. A 1023 mb high is over the E Atlantic near
30N34W. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the W
Atlantic with axis along 50W supporting the surface front.

The northern portion of the central Atlantic front will move E
through Wed. The southern portion of the central Atlantic front
will weaken and dissipate by Sun morning. The W Atlantic high
will remain nearly stationary through the weekend. Another cold
front will move off the SE U.S coast Mon morning, but stall just
off the coast Tue, then weaken and dissipate by Tue night. Strong
SW winds are expected N of 25N Tue night and Wed ahead of a strong
cold front, which will usher in strong NW winds behind it N of
25N Wed through Thu.

$$
Formosa
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