[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271021
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
621 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

Tight pressure gradient between low pressure centered over N
Colombia and high pressure building S from the N Atlantic will
lead to gale force NE winds starting at 28/0300 UTC between 10N
and 12N between 74W and 76W, just off the N coast of Colombia.
This gales will subside Sat morning but then redevelop Sat evening
into Sun morning. Additional pulses of gales are possible Sun and
Mon nights. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC,
or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS
National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Liberia near
06N10W to 02N17W to 02N30W. Scattered moderate isolate strong
convection is located from the equator to 07N between 10W and
50W, or between Liberia and Suriname.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high pressure centered near 27N84W will dominate the
Gulf of Mexico today, before weakening and sliding east tomorrow.
Light to gentle wind is occurring over the eastern Gulf, with
southerly return flow on the back side of the high leading to
moderate SE winds over the central and western Gulf. Winds will
gradually increase tonight into Sat, with some locally strong
winds possible in the central Gulf overnight.

A cold front will reach the NW Gulf Sat evening, then stall over
the NW Gulf through the remainder of the weekend, before
dissipating. After the front dissipates, fresh to locally strong
SE winds will prevail over the Gulf early next week.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the above Special Features section for information on
gales off the coast of Colombia.

A weak trough is located in the vicinity of Haiti, and this trough
will dissipate by tonight. Generally deep layer dry air extends
across the Caribbean, but a few low level showers are quickly
moving in trade wind flow to the E of 65W. As the gradient between
high pressure in the W Atlantic and low pressure over Colombia
tightens, moderate to fresh trade winds today will increase to
fresh to locally strong, especially in the central Caribbean and
Gulf of Honduras through the start of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches from SE of Bermuda into the NW Bahamas and
over to near Melbourne, FL early this morning. This front will
move east through tonight, and be E of the area by Sat. A surface
trough ahead of this front, from 31N55W to 21N65W, is inducing
numerous moderate scattered strong thunderstorms along it.
Otherwise, only a few showers are associated with the front
itself.

N swell in the wake of the front will generally remain highest N
of 28N, where seas of 8 to 10 ft are expected. High pressure will
build in behind the front and center near 29N69W through the
weekend. Another cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Mon,
and some higher seas are possible S of Bermuda in association with
this front by the middle of next week.

Farther east, a 1023 mb high pressure centered SW of the Azores is
supporting a large area of moderate to fresh trade winds S of 25N
between 20W and 60W. Seas in this areas average 7 to 9 ft. These
winds and seas will shift S and gradually diminish through the
weekend.

$$
KONARIK
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