[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262259
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2259 UTC Thu Mar 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 and 2100 UTC surface analyses and satellite
imagery through 0000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....
...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Gale force winds and seas up to 10 ft will begin to pulse north of
Colombia by Fri evening, 28/0300 UTC. This is expected to end by
Sat morning, 1200 UTC and will pulse again Saturday evening and
Sunday evening. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST:
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or go to
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W to 02N15W. The ITCZ continues from 02N15W to 02S30W
to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection noted within 180 nm of the monsoon trough/ITCZ
between 10W-15W. Scattered moderate is observed within 180 nm
north of the ITCZ between 25W and 30W.


GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid-level ridge is centered over the western Gulf and bringing
subsidence to the basin. A 1017 mb surface high pressure is
analyzed near 27N86W. The latest scatterometer data and buoy
observations show light winds in the eastern half of the Gulf
with light to moderate southeasterly winds in the western Gulf.
Buoy and altimeter satellite data show significant wave heights
range from 1 to 3 ft.

The high pressure will prevail across the NE Gulf through Sat. A
cold front will move into the western Gulf Sat evening, with a
modest increase in winds and seas expected behind the front. The
front will stall and dissipate over the northern Gulf Sun
evening. Moderate to fresh return flow will develop on Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid-level ridging extends into the western half of the Caribbean
with a mid to upper-level trough stretching into the northeastern
Caribbean. At the surface, a trough is analyzed from the Mona
Passage to northeast Colombia. Regional radar shows a few fast
moving showers in the trade wind flow across the Leeward and
Windward Islands. Earlier scatterometer data depicted strong
easterly winds north of Colombia, with gentle to moderate trades
elsewhere. Significant wave heights range from 3 to 6 ft.

High pressure across the western Atlantic will maintain fresh to
strong trades over the south-central Caribbean into next week.
Gale force winds are expected along coast of Colombia Fri night,
and possible Sat night, Sun night, and Mon night. Fresh to
locally strong winds will pulse each night in the Gulf of
Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

At 21 UTC, a cold front reached from 31N65W to 27N72W to the
coast of Florida near 29N81W. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms are active ahead of the front, north of 27N and
east of the front to 55W. Generally light to gentle winds
follow the front. Seas are 5 to 8 ft, in open waters outside of
the Bahamas. However, latest reports from buoy 41108 near 32N69W
showed seas to 11 ft. This is indicative of a large area of
swell moving southward into the discussion area.

The cold front will continue southward across the waters north
of 22N through Fri night before dissipating across the central
Bahamas. The associated northerly swell will propagate across
the northern waters tonight through Fri night. High pressure will
build across the northern waters in the wake of the front late
Fri and prevail through Sun. A weak cold front will move into the
northern waters Mon.

Farther east, 1025 mb high pressure centered near the Azores was
supporting a large area of moderate to fresh trade winds noted in
earlier scatterometer data from 10N to 20N between 30W and 55W.
Concurrent altimeter data and buoy observations showed seas of 6
to 8 ft in this area. Seas of 6 to 8 ft is also evident north of
25N, east of 40W, with generally 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. Farther
south, trade wind convergence and favorable winds aloft were
supporting clusters of moderate to strong thunderstorms from 02N
to 06N between 25W and 35W.

$$
Christensen
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