[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241007
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
607 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Partial overnight scatterometer data
showed marginal gale force winds near the coast of Colombia, south
of 11.5N between 74W and 75W. These gales are expected to diminish
by 24/1200 UTC. Significant wave heights likely peak around 11 ft
just downstream of the ongoing gales. Winds near the coast of
Colombia will likely pulse to near gale force speeds at night
through the rest of the week, possibly reaching gale force once
again Fri night and Sat night as high pressure builds over the
subtropical Atlantic.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 00N15W to 02S22W. The ITCZ extends from 02S22W to 05S31W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02S to
07N east of 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Large-scale subsidence is occurring over the Gulf of Mexico this
morning beneath a deep-layer ridge that extends across the basin.
The latest GOES-16 water vapor imagery indicates relatively dry
lower to mid-levels with some upper-level moisture streaming over
the northern Gulf. At the surface, a weak high pressure ridge
extends across the eastern Gulf, with the latest ship and buoy obs
indicating moderate to fresh southerly flow continues over the
western Gulf. Seas in this region are generally running 3-6 ft.
Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail beneath the surface ridge with
seas 3 ft or less.

Fresh southerly flow over the western Gulf will diminish later
today. A high pressure ridge will prevail across the eastern Gulf
through Sat, generally maintaining gentle to moderate winds across
most of the basin for the next few days. Fresh NE to E winds will
develop each evening offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula, then
diminish during the overnight hours. A cold front will move into
the western Gulf Sat and Sat night, with increasing winds and seas
expected behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for more details
about a gale warning off the coast of Colombia.

A 500-mb trough persists over the eastern Caribbean this morning,
with isolated showers noted in radar imagery near the Leeward
Islands and over the NE Caribbean offshore waters. At the surface,
a ridge across the subtropical western Atlantic is maintaining
moderate trade winds across much of the basin, with fresh to
strong winds over the south-central Caribbean and through the
Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the NW
Caribbean. Seas are running 8-11 ft within the strongest winds
near the coast of Colombia, and less than 8 ft over the rest of
the basin.

A high pressure ridge north of the area will maintain fresh to
strong trades over the south-central Caribbean through this week.
Marginal gale force winds near the coast of Colombia will diminish
later this morning. Gale force winds are possible offshore of
Colombia once again Fri night and Sat night as high pressure
builds over the subtropical Atlantic. Fresh to strong NE winds
through the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola will diminish
later today. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse at night in
the Gulf of Honduras tonight through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deep-layer ridge extends across the subtropical western Atlantic
waters this morning. A cold front reaches across the northern
portion of our central Atlantic waters from 32N41W to 29N50W to
29N55W, then becomes stationary to near 30N60W. Overnight
scatterometer data showed fresh to strong winds poleward of the
front, accompanied by 8-10 ft seas in northerly swell. Elsewhere,
a weak surface trough extends from 28N59W to 21N55W. No notable
weather or marine conditions are associated with this feature.
Moderate to fresh trades prevail over the Atlantic waters
generally south of 20N and east of 50W.

A high pressure ridge will persist across the western Atlantic
for the next several days. Fresh to strong SW winds will build
seas offshore of Florida Wed into Wed night, ahead of a cold front
that is expected to move across the offshore waters N of 22N late
Wed night through Fri night while weakening. Associated northerly
swell will propagate across the northern offshore waters Thu
night through Fri night. High pressure will rebuild over the
western Atlantic Fri night through Sat night.

$$
B Reinhart
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