[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222243
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
643 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a strong
high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic and lower pressure
in the south-central Caribbean is supporting a large area of
fresh to strong winds across the central basin per recent scatterometer
data. Winds near the coast of Colombia are expected to pulse to
gale force during the evening and night hours through Monday night.
Seas will build to 12 ft during the peak winds. Looking ahead,
gale conditions are again possible Tuesday night.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 01N20W to 01N30W. The ITCZ continues from 01N30W to 03N41W to
01N50W. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted
from 00N to 07N between 05W and 20W. Scattered moderate convection
is occurring from 00N to 06N between 20W and 27W, and from 00N to
08N between 36W and 46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front has transitioned into a warm front and lifted
inland out of the northern Gulf of Mexico. Middle level and
surface ridging across most of the basin provides dry air
subsidence and mostly fair weather conditions. A surface trough
prevails over the SW gulf waters from 24N93W to the western Bay
of Campeche. Low level precipitable water imagery show plenty of
shallow moisture along and in the vicinity of the trough, which
currently supports isolated showers. Fresh to locally strong
northeast to east winds will develop each evening into mid-week
offshore the Yucatan Peninsula associated with this trough, then
diminish during the overnight and early morning hours.

Atlantic high pressure extending westward across central Florida
into the eastern Gulf will change little through Thu. Afterwards,
return flow will establish across the basin the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for more details
about a gale warning off the coast of Colombia.

GOES-16 layered water vapor imagery indicates dry air conditions
across most of the basin. However, low-level precipitable water
imagery show shallow moisture over Central America and adjacent
waters. This along an upper level trough may support isolated
showers in this region tonight. Similarly, a middle level low
over the eastern Caribbean and shallow moisture crossing the
region support isolated showers in the Leeward Islands, Puerto
Rico and adjacent waters. Except for the central Caribbean and
the Windward Passage where fresh to strong winds prevail, moderate
trade winds are occurring, with little change in conditions
expected into mid-week.

Short-period northeast swell across the waters east of the
Leeward Islands will subside by Tue. Fresh to locally strong winds
may pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras Tue through Fri nights.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle to upper level low over the north-central Atlc supports a
pair of 1019 mb lows, one centered near 28N51W and another near
26N46W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are within 270 nm NE
semicircle of the easternmost low. A cold front is sinking over
the NE subtropical Atlc waters, extending along 30N13W to 27N20W
to 30N27W. Fresh to strong winds are ahead and behind of the
front near the Canary Islands. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge
dominates the subtropical western and eastern Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front will stall just N of the area and W of 50W tonight,
before lifting N as a warm front Mon. High pressure ridging will
continue across the northern waters for the next several days.
Fresh to strong southwest flow will develop over the northern SW
N Atlc waters Wed and Wed night, ahead of another cold front that
may move across the northern waters Thu and Thu night.

$$
KONARIK
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net