[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132308
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
708 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 05N21W. The ITCZ extends from 05N21W to 01N38W, then
resumes W of a surface trough from 00N40W to the coast of Brazil
near 03S43W. A N-S surface trough is along 39W from 05N-01S.
Scattered moderate convection is S of the monsoon trough from
02N-04N between 11W-14W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
within 180 nm of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb surface high is centered near the Florida Big Bend at
29N83W. 5-15 anticyclonic winds are over the Gulf with weakest
winds over the high and strongest winds over the Straits of
Florida. Isolated showers are over the Straits of Florida. The
remainder of the Gulf has fair weather. In the upper levels, an
upper level ridge is over the Gulf along 90W. Scattered high
clouds are over the N Gulf N of 25N. Strong subsidence is over
the S Gulf.

Weak surface ridging across the Gulf will maintain quiescent
conditions across the Gulf through at least Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest
winds along the coast of Colombia and weakest winds over the Gulf
of Honduras. Scattered showers are over Puerto Rico, central
Hispaniola, Jamaica, W Honduras, S Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and W
Panama. In the upper levels, a sharp upper level trough is over
the central Caribbean with its axis along 70W. Strong subsidence
is over the entire Caribbean.

The Bermuda High north of the area will support fresh to strong
NE winds in the south-central Caribbean for the next several days.
Winds across the central Caribbean will increase Sat night, then
remain fresh to occasionally strong through Tue. No significant
long-period swell is anticipated to impact the tropical N Atlantic
waters for the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is N of the Leeward Islands from 24N61W to
18N62W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 21N-28N
between 55W-64W. This convection is also being enhanced by upper
level diffluence E of a sharp upper level trough along 64W.
A 1030 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 35N52W.
Another 1031 mb high is centered N of the Azores near 40N26W.

A ridge extending from the central Atlantic high to N Florida
will weaken Sat night as a cold front sags southward over the W
Atlantic waters Sun through Mon. High pressure building into the
W Atlantic in the wake of the front will build seas east of the
Bahamas Mon and Tue.

$$
Formosa
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