[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120556
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
156 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Senegal near 12N16W to 03N23W.
The ITCZ continues from 03N23W to 00N31W to the coast of Brazil
near 02S40W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 06S-04N between 16W and 32W, and more scattered showers
along the ITCZ west of 32W to the coast of Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge of high pressure extends across the Gulf maintaining
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the basin, along
with mainly seas of 2-4 ft. In the upper levels, a ridge is over
Mexico and Texas producing NW upper level flow over the Gulf of
Mexico.

Weak high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through
Fri, with gentle return flow Thursday becoming moderate to fresh
across the basin Fri. A cold front will briefly drop into the
northern Gulf late Fri before it stalls and retreats northward
into the weekend. Diurnally driven NE winds of 20 kt will occur
during the evenings hours within about 90 nm of the coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mainly moderate to locally fresh trades are noted across the
basin, except fresh to strong in the S-central Caribbean. Seas
are mainly 4-7 ft, except 8-9 ft in the S-central Caribbean.
Scattered showers were noted over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and
eastern Cuba, as well as offshore and over interior Nicaragua and
Honduras. In the upper levels, a sharp upper level trough is over
the central Caribbean with its axis between 75W-77W. Strong
subsidence is over the entire Caribbean. Strong subsidence is
limiting convection mainly south of 15N between 64W-80W.

A weakening ridge across the Atlantic will produce fresh to
strong winds across the south-central Caribbean through tonight
before diminishing Thu and Fri. Winds will strengthen once again
during the upcoming weekend as high pressure builds N of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1031 mb high pressure area is over the central Atlantic near
34N48W. A weakening stationary front enters the central Atlantic
near 31N33W and extends SW through 21N47W. A shear line continues
WSW to just N of Puerto Rico near 19N66W. A ridge extends from
the high WSW to near northern Florida, with a weak surface trough
analyzed from 25N67W to 19N72W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from Hispaniola to the Bahamas and north to 26N between
65W-73W. Fresh to strong winds were noted by scatterometer data
from 22N-27N to the E of the Bahamas, with gentle to moderate
winds elsewhere. Seas are mainly 8-10 ft E of the Bahamas, and
2-4 ft W of the Bahamas. E of the offshore waters zones, fresh to
strong winds were noted N of the shear line, with moderate to
locally fresh trades S of the shear line. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of the front and shear line. In the upper levels, an
upper level trough is over the Canary Islands producing scattered
showers.

High pressure centered over the central Atlantic will weaken
slightly and drift N to along 30N by Fri, then strengthen modestly
over the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the
waters S of 27N through tonight. High seas in large N to NE swell
across the waters E of the Bahamas are expected to gradually
subside to 8 ft or less through late Thu. A cold front will move
into the NW waters from Friday night into Saturday before it
weakens and dissipates through Saturday night.

$$
MMTorres
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