[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092329
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
728 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2310 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

A 1037 mb high west of Bermuda is creating gale force winds near
the coast of N Colombia and near the approach to the Windward
Passage. Near gale to gale force winds will continue in these
areas through 1200 UTC Tuesday morning. The Mona Passage and area
south of the Dominican Republic will see near gales during this
time. Seas will range from 10 to 13 ft. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A cold front extends from 31N43W to 25N49W to 20N60W. The ASCAT
pass from early Monday morning around 1204 UTC showed gale force
winds within 180 nm NW of the front between 25N-30N. Expect near
gale to minimal gale force winds behind the front through Tuesday
morning. Seas in the 12-16 ft range will continue over the area.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or
at website http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 07N13W to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W to
02N25W to 00N33W to the coast of Brazil near 03S41W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is inside the area
enclosed by the points 04N04W to 01S21W to 04S40W to 02N48W to
11N14W to 04N04W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1037 mb high over the west Atlantic near 32N71W extends ridging
over much of the Gulf. Upper-level ridging also currently prevails
over most of the Gulf of Mexico. An atmospheric river of mid-upper
level moisture extends from the east Pacific Ocean across Texas to
an upper-level low approaching the Great Lakes region. Scattered
moderate showers and isolated tstorms associated with this plume
of moisture prevail over portions of western Louisiana, east
Texas, south Texas and the far NW Gulf of Mexico off the Texas and
western Louisiana coasts. Isolated showers are possible over the
remainder of the Gulf. Strong E winds are over portions of the
eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida Straits. Moderate SE winds are
over the W Gulf of Mexico.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through early Fri. Fresh to
strong winds currently over the eastern Gulf will diminish tonight
into early Tue, with return flow dominating across the basin under
the the ridging through Fri. A cold front will drop into the N
Gulf Fri, stall out and then retreat northward into the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An Atlantic stationary front extends from 19N62W through the
Virgin Islands to 17N69W, dissipating to 17N75W. Scattered showers
and isolated tstorms extend from near the Windward Passage to near
Puerto Rico, covering portions of the northern Caribbean.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Strong winds cover
much of the basin, with near gale to gale force winds in the
Windward Passage, near the coast of Colombia, and south of the
Dominican Republic.

The weakening stationary front extending across the Virgin
Islands to along the S coast of Puerto Rico will move NW Tue
before dissipating. Strong to near gale force winds, except
minimal gale force near the approach to the Windward Passage, and
large seas will linger through late tonight before conditions
start to improve. Strong winds will prevail across the S-central
Caribbean through the forecast period, pulsing to minimal gale
force tonight into early Tue. Large N swell will continue to
affect the NE Caribbean passages through Wed. A weaker pressure
pattern will prevail for the remainder of the week, strengthening
again in the S-central Caribbean Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1037 mb high centered near 32N71W extends ridging over the W
Atlantic. A central Atlantic cold front extends from 32N42W to
25N49W to 20N60W. Isolated showers are near the front. Gale force
winds are within 180 nm NW of the front, from 25N-30N. NE winds
of 25-30 kt cover a very large area extending from the Florida
Straits and Greater Antilles, northward to 27N and eastward to the
central Atlantic cold front. Altimeter passes from earlier today
showed seas of 12-15 ft from 20N-28N between 58W-63W. An upper-
level trough is from 30N75W to E Cuba. Scattered showers and
isolated tstorms are seen east of the upper-trough axis, from
18N-28N between 66W-75W. In the NE Atlantic, an upper-level low
near 25N24W is producing showers from 22N-29N between 15W-24W.

A cold front extending from 22N56W to the Virgin Islands will
gradually stall tonight then shift NW Tue. Strong winds and high
seas in large NW to N swell will prevail NW of the front through
Tue before conditions start to improve toward the middle of the
week. Weak high pressure and moderate to fresh tradewinds will
prevail Thu over the west Atlantic, with gentle to moderate winds
Fri as the ridge retreats. A cold front may drop SE into the
waters east of N Florida Fri night into Sat, weakening and
dissipating through Sat night.

$$
Hagen
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