[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031051
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
550 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1120 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone/Liberia near 07N11W
to 01N22W. The ITCZ extends from 01N22W to the coast of Brazil
near 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 250 nm
on either sides of the boundaries between 15W-31W. Scattered
strong convection is moving off the coasts of Liberia and Cote
d'Ivoire from 03N-06N between 05W-12W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging continues to extend across the Gulf from a 1027
mb high in the western Atlantic. Fog is being reported across the
northwestern and central Gulf, N of 27N and W of 88W. The latest
scatterometer data and surface observations depicts moderate to
fresh southeasterly winds covering the basin with strong winds
near the Yucatan Channel. Gentle southerly winds are along the
Gulf coast. Seas range from 3 to 6 ft.

High pressure will remain across the Gulf through Wed, then shift
eastward. A cold front will move off the Texas coast on Wed, and
move SE of the basin by Fri. High pressure will rebuild in the
wake of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends across the Mona Passage from 18N67W to
17N69W. Scattered showers are noted along the front, impacting
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The latest scatterometer data depicts
strong winds north of Colombia with seas up to 9 ft. Moderate
trades are seen elsewhere with seas ranging from 5 to 8 ft. Strong
winds are also noted in the Gulf of Venezuela in addition
northern Hispaniola.

A ridge over the western Atlantic will shift eastward through Wed
night. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean on Fri, then
extend from Haiti to Honduras by Sat evening. Strong to near gale
force winds will continue near the coast of Colombia through Sat
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1027 mb high is centered over the western Atlantic near 34N61W.
A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N41W to 25N50W to
21N59W. The tail-end of the front has stalled from 21N59W to the
northern coast of Puerto Rico near 18N66W. Scattered showers are
within 100 nm of the front. A 1026 mb surface high is over the
eastern Atlantic near 32N22W. The latest scatterometer data
depicts strong southerly winds in the western Atlantic N of 29N
and W of 78W. Fresh to strong northeasterly winds are noted in the
southern half of the central Atlantic cold front, with strong
winds on either side of the front N of 26N. Seas are up to 9 ft
near this front.

High pressure will prevail across the forecast waters through
Thu. A cold front will move into the NW waters Thu night, then
reach from 24N65W to Hispaniola by Sat night. Strong winds and
building seas will follow the front.

$$
AReinhart
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