[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021722
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1222 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 07N12W to
00N21W. The ITCZ extends from 00N21W to 04S30W to Brazil near
05S37W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N-04S
between 15W-29W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-03S
between 37W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

15-20 kt southerly return flow is over the Gulf of Mexico due to a
1028 mb high over the western Atlantic near 32N71W. Radar imagery
shows the Gulf is void of precipitation. In the upper levels,
zonal flow with strong subsidence is noted.

High pressure will remain across the Gulf through Wed before
retreating E in response to a cold front reaching the Texas coast
Wed. The cold front will continue E and will be SE of the Gulf by
early Fri. Strong high pressure following the front will build E
across the southern United States through Fri night. Otherwise,
fresh to strong winds will prevail over the basin through Fri
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a slow moving cold front extends from the Leeward
Islands near 20N63W to E Hispaniola near 18N68W to S of Jamaica
near 16N77W. Scattered showers are over the Windward Islands, the
Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and E Cuba. Similar
showers are over E Honduras and E Nicaragua. 15-30 kt tradewinds
are over the Caribbean with strongest winds along the coast of N
Colombia and weakest winds over the Windward Islands.

A nearly stationary front extending from the eastern tip of the
Dominican Republic to near 16N77W will dissipate today. A high
pressure ridge over the western Atlantic will shift E through Wed
night. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop Tue over the western
Caribbean and continue through early Thu as a Gulf of Mexico cold
front approaches the Yucatan Channel. The front will reach the
far NW Caribbean Fri morning. Strong to near gale force winds will
continue along and near the coast of Colombia through Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1028 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 32N71W. A cold
front is over the central Atlantic from 31N48W to 21N60W to the
Leeward Islands near 20N63W. The tail end of a reinforcing cold
front extends from 31N53W to 26N58W. Scattered showers are within
90 nm of the fronts. A 1028 mb high is over the E Atlantic near
31N25W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is over
the E Atlantic near 21N34W. Scattered showers are within 240 nm of
the center.

The eastern most central Atlantic cold front is stalling and will
dissipate Tue. High pressure centered near 32N70W will shift ENE
into the central Atlantic during the next few days. The next cold
front will move E from Florida Thu night, then reach from just W
of Bermuda to the central Bahamas to E central Cuba by late Fri
night. Strong winds will precede and follow the front N of 27N Thu
night through Fri night.

$$
Formosa
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