[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301753
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
153 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends in the central Atlantic from 12N
southward near 45W, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. The
tropical wave had to be repositioned westward significantly today.
Weak troughing at the surface is evident in this morning's
scatterometer passes south of 05N. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is present from 03N-08N between 37W-
47W.

A tropical wave extends in the central Atlantic with an axis near
22N49W to 09N56W, moving westward around 15 kt. The wave is well-
defined at the surface based on scatterometer passes this
morning. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 20-23N
between 47W-51W.

A tropical wave extends in the central Caribbean from 20N
southward near 70W, moving westward around 15-20 kt. Weak
troughing is evident at the surface with this wave north of 15N
from scatterometer and station data. No significant deep
convection is evident in association with the wave this morning.

A tropical wave extends over Central America from 13N southward
near 83W, moving westward around 10 kt. The tropical wave is
primarily identified via GFS-based 700 mb wave diagnostics.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring
from 09N-12N between 80W-83W in part due to the eastward extent
of the NE Pacific monsoon trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from inland in Senegal near 15N17W to
08N27W. The ITCZ extends from 08N27W to 05N43W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical wave near 45W, scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection from 08N-13N east of 23W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak ridging and a 1018 mb high at 27N84W prevails over the N
Gulf of Mexico today with light to gentle winds over the E Gulf
and moderate to fresh SE to SE winds in the W Gulf. No
significant convection is occurring today over the Gulf. Some
Saharan Air Layer/African dust continues to be advected into the W
Gulf and it is somewhat reducing visibility.

High pressure over the eastern Gulf will gradually drift
southward through Fri, then persist across the central Gulf this
weekend. Moderate to fresh return flow over the western Gulf will
diminish late this week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the two tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A moderate high pressure ridge extends west-northwest to east-
southeast over the Bahamas. The resulting pressure gradient is
causing generally moderate to fresh E trades this morning, except
for strong ENE trades just north of Colombia as observed by
scatterometer this morning. The S half of the Caribbean is
covered by a moderate Saharan Air Layer/African Dust event, though
visibilities are only slightly inhibited. Aside from some
convection in the SW Caribbean in connection with a tropical wave
and the NE Pacific monsoon trough, only the S Windward Islands are
experiencing scattered showers.

High pressure persisting north of the region will maintain fresh
to strong trades in the south-central Caribbean through the
upcoming weekend. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades will
prevail for the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the area.

The 1030 mb Bermuda-Azores High is located near 36N41W with a
ridge extending westward over the Bahamas. The trades south of
the ridge are generally gentle to moderate with some fresh NE
trades from 05N-20N between 30W-45W. W winds north of the ridge
off of the SE United States coast are moderate to fresh. Some African
dust still remains north of 25N west of 70W. A second Saharan Air
Layer/African dust region extends from around 07N-25N between
West African and 60W. This region has some reductions in
visibility because of the dust.

A high pressure ridge will prevail across the central waters
through late this week. A low pressure trough will linger off the
SE U.S. coast through Thu. A weak cold front may move into the
northern waters and stall late Fri through Sat.

$$
Landsea
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