[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W from 18N southward,
moving westward at 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: the wave is
moving through the area of nearby ITCZ precipitation.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W from 17N southward,
moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: the wave is
moving through the area of nearby ITCZ precipitation

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W, from 20N southward,
moving westward at 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to strong in clusters in the coastal waters and inland
areas of Colombia, NW Venezuela near Lake Maracaibo, and Panama.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W, from 18N southward,
moving westward at 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to strong in clusters in the coastal waters and inland
areas of Colombia, NW Venezuela near Lake Maracaibo, and Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Africa, near 12N16W, to 10N22W, to 08N37W. The ITCZ is along
08N39W, to 09N51W, to 10N62W. Precipitation: Scattered moderate
to strong is from 05N to 11N between 13W and 18W. Scattered
moderate is within 150 nm on either side of the monsoon trough
and the ITCZ between 21W and 40W, and within 90 nm north of the
ITCZ between 58W and 62W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level ridge extends from a southern Mexico anticyclonic
circulation center, to Florida.

A surface trough extends from the Florida west coast near Tampa
Bay, to 26N84W, and 24N85W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is
in the Straits of Florida.

A surface ridge extends from the Florida Big Bend, into the west
central Gulf of Mexico, to the 23N98W at the coast of Mexico.
The surface ridge will prevail in the Gulf of Mexico through
early next week. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are expected in
most of the basin through Tuesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level inverted trough extends from Honduras, across SE
Cuba to the southern Bahamas. Precipitation: Scattered moderate
isolated strong in the Caribbean Sea from SE Cuba the coastal
waters of Nicaragua between 77W and 84W.

The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows broad cyclonic
wind flow in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation:
scattered moderate isolated strong from 10N to 14N between 80W
and 85W. The monsoon trough is along 08N74W in Colombia beyond
southern Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong
in clusters in the coastal waters and inland areas of Colombia,
NW Venezuela near Lake Maracaibo, Panama, and parts of the
eastern Pacific Ocean from 05N to 11N between 72W and 80W.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the south central
Caribbean Sea through early next week. It is possible that the
winds may pulse to near gale-force along the coast of Colombia
at night. A tropical wave will approach the Lesser Antilles
early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level inverted trough extends from Honduras, beyond the
SE half of Cuba to the SE half of the Bahamas. A separate area
of upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from
27N northward ans 66W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate
covers the Atlantic Ocean from 24N northward from 60W westward.

Light to gentle winds will prevail across the northern waters
through the weekend, as high pressure extends across the area
from the Central Atlantic Ocean. A trough will be passing
through the area. It is possible that the trough may bring some
moderate to fresh westerly winds north of 27N.

$$
mt/dbm
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