[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 240232
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Dolly Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042020
1100 PM AST Tue Jun 23 2020

Dolly's deep convection is diminishing as the cyclone begins to
move over colder waters to the north of the Gulf Stream.  Given
the decreased convection, it is assumed that the circulation is
gradually spinning down and the current intensity is therefore
estimated to be near 35 kt.  This is also consistent with data from
a recent scatterometer overpass.  Within 24 hours, the system will
be moving over SSTs of around 15 deg C, and the cyclone should have
degenerated into remnant low devoid of significant convection.  The
global models forecast the system to open up into a trough in 36
hours or so and the official forest calls for dissipation by 48
hours, if not sooner.

The cyclone continues to move east-northeastward, or around
060/9 kt.  There is no change to the track forecast reasoning,
Dolly is expected to turn northeastward with an increase in forward
speed as it moves with the southwesterly mid-level flow to the
southeast of the main branch of mid-latitude westerlies.  The
official track forecast lies close to the previous one and is on
top of the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCA, track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 40.5N  60.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 41.8N  58.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 43.9N  55.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  25/1200Z 45.8N  52.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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