[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220450
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 29/30W south of 17N, moving
W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 210 nm of
the wave axis from 07N-11N.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 58/59W south of 15N, moving
W near 25 kt. Isolated showers are over water south of 12N
within 180 nm of the wave axis. A stable air mass attributed
to the Saharan Air Layer is preventing any convection N of 12N.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 78/79W south of 19N moving
W near 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are within
180 nm of the wave axis. Strong winds are within 300 nm E of
the wave axis from 11N-18N.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 89/90W south of 20N from
the Yucatan peninsula to eastern Guatemala to the east Pacific,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms
extend as far north as 23N in the south-central Gulf of Mexico
between 88W-90W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 09N22W. The ITCZ continues from 09N22W to 08N28W, then
resumes west of a tropical wave from 07N32W to 04N48W to 05N53W.
Aside from convection mentioned in the tropical waves section,
isolated to scattered moderate convection is seen within 240 nm
either side of the ITCZ between 35W-52W. Along the coast of
Africa, numerous moderate scattered strong convection is seen
from 10N-13N east of 18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb surface high over the NE Gulf near 28N84W supports a
generally weak pressure gradient across the region, with gentle
to moderate winds over the eastern Gulf. Fresh SE winds are
seen over the west-central Gulf of Mexico. Fresh E winds are
over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Diffluence aloft is supporting
scattered showers and tstms over the NW basin, mainly north of
26N and west of 89W.

Surface ridging will prevail over the Gulf waters this week.
Moderate to fresh southerly winds are forecast over the western
Gulf tonight through Thu night as the pressure gradient
tightens between the ridge and lower pressure over Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong upper-level divergence is supporting numerous moderate
scattered strong convection over the western Caribbean from
12N-17N between 81W-86W, including much of Nicaragua and eastern
Honduras. Dense Saharan dust covers the eastern Caribbean east
of 72W. No precipitation is noted in this area. Scattered
showers and isolated tstorms are seen over Haiti and Cuba.
Similar activity is seen along the north coast of Venezuela
between 64W-68W. A recent ASCAT pass shows strong trades in the
south-central Caribbean with near gale force winds noted near
the coast of NW Venezuela and NE Colombia. The ASCAT pass also
shows strong trades over the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh trades are
seen elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean, as well
as the western Caribbean from 14N-19N.

Fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean will
expand to the north-central and southwest basin through the
middle of the week as high pressure builds over the western
Atlantic. Winds will pulse to near gale force off the coast of
Colombia each night through Thu night with seas building to near
12 ft during the strongest winds. Fresh to strong winds are
expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Abundant moisture and weak upper-level diffluence is causing
isolated showers and tstorms over portions of Cuba, the Bahamas
and near the east coast of Florida. Upper-level ridging and
subsidence is located in the area east of the Bahamas and north
of Puerto Rico. A surface trough near Bermuda and weak
upper-level divergence are enhancing scattered showers and
isolated tstorms from 28N-32N between 62W-68W. A recent ASCAT
pass shows gentle to moderate wind speeds across the subtropical
Atlantic from 23N-32N between 40W-81W.

Farther east, an upper-level low is centered near 26N46W. A
surface trough extends from 35N44W to a 1022 mb low near 31N49W
to 23N58W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
from 25N-29N between 48W-53W. A surface trough extends from
25N36W to 30N36W with isolated showers along it. A 1029 mb high
is near 35N25W and a 1026 mb high is near 34N54W. Fresh trades
prevail across the tropical Atlantic from 09N-21N between
35W-60W.

High pressure will prevail across the western Atlantic this
week. Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds will pulse
across the waters north of Hispaniola each night through Fri
night.

$$
Hagen
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