[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202135
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
535 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2215 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 20W south of 17N, moving
westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
noted within 180 nm of the wave axis from 04N to 11N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 42W south of 15N, moving
westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted within 180 nm of the wave axis from 04N to
08N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 61W south of 20N, moving
westward 15 knots. Scattered showers are seen in the vicinity
of the wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 73W south of 19N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 knots. There is limited convection
associated to this wave mostly inland over N Colombia.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 83W south of 20N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is over the SW Caribbean from 09N-13N between 79W-85W
into the coast of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 09N23W. The ITCZ
continues from 09N23W to 06N40W. It resumes W of a tropical wave
from 05N43W to 03N50W. Aside from convection mentioned in the
tropical waves section above, scattered moderate convection is
in land over Guinea from 09N-14N between 14W-18W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen along the ITCZ from 02N-09N between
26W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 mb high is centered over the north central Gulf of Mexico
near 28N87W. A surface trough extends from 24N84W to the Yucatan
Peninsula near 21N86W. Scattered moderate convection is over S
FL, the Straits of Florida, and SE Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to
moderate east to southeast winds prevail over much of the Gulf
waters, except over the NE Gulf where light to gentle winds are
noted.

Surface ridging will dominate the Gulf waters during the entire
period. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight seas are
expected through Sun. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are
forecast over the western Gulf Sun evening through Thu night
as the pressure gradient tightens between the ridge and
deepening low pressure over Mexico. Strong winds are expected
over the Bay of Campeche at night during this period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Three tropical waves are traversing the Caribbean waters. Please
see the tropical waves section above.

The pressure gradient between a ridge north of the area and
climatological low pressure over Colombia is supporting strong to
near gale force winds over the south central Caribbean. Light to
gentle winds prevail over the western Caribbean. Moderate to
fresh winds prevail elsewhere over the Caribbean waters.

Fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean will
expand to the north-central and southwest basin tonight through
the middle of the week as high pressure builds over the western
Atlantic. Winds will pulse to near gale force near the coast of
Colombia each night through Wed night. Seas are forecast to build
to 13 ft with the strongest winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are over the Atlantic. See above.

A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 31N50W to
21N56W. Scattered moderate convection is from 21N-30N
between 47W-52W. A 1032 mb high is over the E Atlantic
near 33N28W.

An upper level trough passes through the coastal areas of
South Carolina to central Florida to the southeast Gulf of
Mexico. Upper level divergence ahead of this trough is
upporting scattered moderate convection extending over the
northern Bahamas northward toward the waters between 31N68W
and 31N72W.

In the tropics, a large plume of Saharan dust continues to spread
across the tropical waters. Dry and hazy conditions associated
with this dust plume cover much of the waters between 10N and
20N and east of 55W to Africa. Moderate to fresh trade winds
prevail south of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail north of
20N.

High pressure anchored near the Azores Islands will extend a
ridge axis across the offshore waters through the end of the
week. Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds will pulse north
of Hispaniola at night through Thu night.

$$
Torres
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