[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192251
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Meteo-France forecasts minimal gale-force winds over the Agadir
area through this evening, then weakening to near-gale force
over Agadir and Canarias through the next 24 hours. Please refer
to the Meteo-France forecast located at
http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grand large/ metarea2, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 31W and S of 14N, moving
westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted
between 30W-36W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W S of 19N, moving westward
at 10-15 kt. Abundant cloudiness prevails in the wave's
environment. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N-15N
between 53W-59W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 66W and S of 18N, moving
westward at 15 kt. Most of the significant convection is seen
inland.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 79W S of 22N, moving westward
10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the northern
portion of the wave mainly N of 16N and south of 11N between 75W
to 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 17N16W to 08N26W. The ITCZ
begins near 02N36W to 05N52W. Scattered showers prevail on
either side of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across most of the basin, anchored by a
1019 mb high centered over the Alabama and Mississippi border. A
surface trough extends across south Florida and the southeast
Gulf along 26N and east of 83W. Scattered moderate convection
prevails in the vicinity of the trough mainly south of 26N and
east of 85W.

The ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several
days. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight seas are
expected through Sun. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are
forecast over the western Gulf Mon night through Tue night as
the pressure gradient tightens between the ridge and lower
pressure over Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

High pressure prevails north of the area, over the west Atlantic
waters. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure
and climatological low pressure over Colombia is supporting
strong to near gale force winds over the south-central
Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the western
Caribbean, while moderate to fresh winds are noted over the
remainder of the Caribbean waters. To the southwest, the monsoon
trough extends along 11N between 75W-83W enhancing convection in
the area. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and south
of the boundary between 76W-82W.

Fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean will
expand in coverage this weekend as high pressure builds over the
western Atlantic. Winds will pulse to near gale force near the
coast of Colombia each night through Wed night. Seas are
forecast to build to 11 or 12 ft with the strongest winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin, and the Gale Warning over the far east
Atlantic.

Divergence ahead of an upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico
is supporting scattered moderate convection over the waters west
69W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 32N47W to 22N52W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection prevails with this
trough north of 21N between 46W-56W. Surface ridging prevails
across the remainder of the basin, anchored by high pressure
centers located north of the area.

A large area of Saharan dust covers the tropical Atlantic E of
50W to Africa with dry and hazy conditions. Fresh to strong
tradewinds prevail S of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds are noted
over the waters N of 20N.

The ridge will prevail across the region through early next
week. Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds will pulse
north of Hispaniola at night.

$$
MTorres
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