[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171753
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
140 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 17W/18W from 12N
southward, moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered showers are
within 120 nm of the wave axis S of 08N. A thick plume of dust is
from 10N-27N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W from 15N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection
is from 04N-10N between 38W-46W. This wave is forecast to reach
the waters between 55W and the Lesser Antilles on Fri, affecting
the islands mainly south of Guadeloupe  late on Fri or fri
night. The wave is embedded in a large area of African dust.

A tropical wave with axis along 60W S of 19N is currently
producing showers and tunderstorms over the Windward Islands and
NE coastal sections of Venezuela. This system could produce
gusty winds and heavy rainfall over these locations today. In
fact, Grenada has reported gusty winds of 30-40 kt with heavy
showers. Trinidad and Tobago also reported a wind gust of 22 kt.
This tropical wave will move across the eastern Caribbean
tonight and Thu, reaching the central Caribbean late on Thu or
Thu night. A recent scatterometer pass indicates fresh to
locally strong E-SE winds on the east side of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea near 10N14W to 10N18W to
06N23W. The ITCZ continues from 06N23W to 07N37W. The ITCZ
resumes W of a tropical wave at 06N42W and continues to the
coast of N Brazil near 04N51W. Besides the convection mentioned
in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to strong
convection is from 06N-12N between 49W-56W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, a 1019 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf of
Mexico near 28N93W. Elsewhere, radar imagery shows isolated
moderate convection over the Straits of Florida and S Florida.
Scattered showers are over the NE Gulf N of 28N to include the
Florida Panhandle.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf of Mexico during the next several
days. Gentle to moderate easterly winds, and 2 to 4 ft seas, are
expected through Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the Windward Islands. Please,
see the Tropical Waves section for details.

 A 1010 mb low is centered over the SW Caribbean near 10N77W.
Isolated moderate convection is S of 11N between 76W-80W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the
W Caribbean from 13N-18N between 80W-90W.

Fresh to strong trades will continue over the south-central
Caribbean through Fri, then expand in coverage this weekend as
high pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N72W to 28N72W. A surface trough
continues from 28N72W, to the Bahamas near 25N74W, to the coast
of Cuba near 23N78W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is within 360 nm E of the system.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from
27N northward and 33W eastward. Rain showers are possible in the
area of cyclonic wind flow.

The W Atlantic surface front will drift eastward N of 27N through
Thu and weaken. Atlantic high pressure will build across the
region by the end of the week. Fresh to occasionally strong
easterly winds will pulse north of Hispaniola at night.

$$
Formosa/GR
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