[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161139
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
739 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the E Atlc extending from 02N-18N with
axis near 26W, moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc extending from 02N-19N
with axis near 44W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are from 01N-11N between 40W-50W.

A tropical wave extends from 06N-17N with axis near 54W, moving W
at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-13N between
50W-58W. The tropical wave will cross the Lesser Antilles tonight,
then move across the eastern Caribbean through early Thu.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean S of 18N with axis near 65W,
moving W around 10-15 kt. There is no convection over water
associated with this wave due to deep layered dry air in the area.
The tropical wave will move across the central Caribbean through
early Thu and across the western Caribbean Thu night to Fri night.

A tropical wave is in the far W Caribbean S of 20N with axis
along 86W, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers and tstms are in
the NW Caribbean off the Yucatan peninsula and in the Gulf of
Honduras. The tropical wave will exit the basin by this
afternoon.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 11N16W
to 10N22W. The ITCZ begins near 07N34W and continues to 06N40W. Aside
from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered
moderate convection is from 03N-09N between 08W-16W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Water vapor and microwave satellite imagery continue to show deep
layered dry air across most of the basin, which is supporting
stable conditions. Surface ridging covers the gulf, except for the
SW basin where a surface trough prevails with possible isolated
showers supported by shallow moisture as indicated by the low-
level LPW imagery.

The surface trough will linger over the Yucatan peninsula and SW
Gulf through today. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will dominate
the remainder basin supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds through the entire period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level divergence and moisture inflow from the EPAC monsoon
trough continue to support scattered showers and tstms across
portions of the western Caribbean. This activity is enhanced by a
tropical wave crossing central America today. Deep layered dry air
is over the remainder basin, which is supporting fair weather
conditions.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms over portions of
the western Caribbean waters are expected to continue through Wed.
A tropical wave with axis near 86W will exit the basin today. A
second tropical wave will continue to move across the eastern
Caribbean today, the central Caribbean Tue afternoon through
early Thu and across the western Caribbean Thu night through Fri
night. A third tropical wave will enter the eastern Tropical N
Atlantic waters today, cross the Lesser Antilles tonight, then
move across the eastern Caribbean through early Thu and across the
central Caribbean through Fri night. Otherwise, fresh to strong
trade winds will remain over the south-central Caribbean through
Fri, then expand in coverage beginning late on Fri and through Sat
night.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough extends from low pressure of 1015 mb near 30N78W
southward along the Florida seaboard to just N of Andros Island.
The low will slowly track well north of the area through Thu
pulling the trough away from the area. Until then, the combination
of this trough and plenty of available moisture in place over the
western Atlantic will continue to result in unsettled weather
conditions over these waters through the end of the week. Central
Atlantic high pressure will begin to build westward toward the
Bahamas and Florida Thu through Sat night.

$$
Ramos
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