[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152337
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
736 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2250 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the E Atlc extending from 02N-17N with
axis near 25W, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is ahead of the wave axis from 04.5N-11N between 24W and 34W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc extending from 02N-18N with
axis near 42W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is ahead of the wave axis from 04N-10N between 41W and
48W.

A tropical wave is in the Atlc extending from 02N-18N with axis
near 52W-53W, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 03N-11N between 48W and 56W. The tropical wave will cross
the Lesser Antilles Tue night, then move across the eastern
Caribbean through early Thu.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean along 64W from 16N
southward moving W around 10-15 kt. There is no convection over
water associated with this wave due to dry air in the area. The
tropical wave will move across the central Caribbean Tue afternoon
through early Thu and across the western Caribbean Thu night to
Fri night.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean S of 19N with axis along
84W, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is within 150 nm ahead and 240 nm behind the wave axis
from 11N-19N, including over eastern portions of Honduras and
Nicaragua. The tropical wave will exit the basin by early Tue
afternoon.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Guinea-Bissau and
Gambia near 12N17W to 08N25W. The ITCZ is from 08N25W to 08N39W
then continues from 07N43W to 06N49W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical waves, there is no further
significant convection.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A large and deep layered upper-level low encompasses eastern
portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, and west portions of Virginia
and North Carolina, and extends a broad upper- level trough axis
to southern Georgia to the east-central Gulf to the SW Gulf. GOES
water vapor channels and TPW imagery indicate that the atmosphere
is generally dry in the northern Gulf but quite moist over the
southern and west-central Gulf. At the surface, a trough is
analyzed over the SW Gulf from 19N91W to just south of
Brownsville, TX. Isolated showers and tstorms are over the
southern Gulf, generally south of a line from Naples, Florida to
26N90W to Port O'Connor Texas. A recent ASCAT pass shows gentle to
moderate wind speeds over the basin.

The surface trough over the Yucatan peninsula and SW Gulf will
linger through Tue. Weak high pressure will dominate the remainder
of the basin, supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds
through the entire period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean. See above.

An upper-level trough is over the eastern and southern Gulf of
Mexico, while an upper-level ridge is over the central Caribbean.
In between those features, abundant atmospheric moisture is being
transported to the western Caribbean Sea, as shown by TPW imagery.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen over and south
of Cuba to the east of Havana, from 18N-23N between the Windward
Passage and 85W. Isolated tstorms are seen near the coast of
Belize and Yucatan as well as in the Yucatan Channel. In the far
SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing
numerous moderate scattered strong convection from 08N- 14N
between 77W-85W. Drier air is over the eastern Caribbean east of
75W. A recent ASCAT pass shows strong trades over the south-
central Caribbean from 12N-15N between 70W-76W, with fresh trades
elsewhere south of 18N between 64W-78W.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over portions of
the western Caribbean waters are expected to continue through
Tue. Fresh to strong trade winds will remain over the
south-central Caribbean through the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1017 mb low is along the coast near the Florida-Georgia border. A
weak stationary front extends westward from the low across
Jacksonville to near Tallahassee Florida. A surface trough
extends southward from the low to near 27N80W. CIMSS analysis
shows a large area of upper-level divergence from the central and
northwest Bahamas northward to the Carolinas. Scattered moderate
convection is seen east of the surface trough from 27N-32N to 70W.
between 71W-80W. Another surface trough is analyzed from 24N71W to
28N64W to 28N59W to 30N58W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is occurring from the northern waters of Cuba
northeastward across the Bahamas to within 180 nm either side of
the surface trough to 28N72W, then becomes scattered moderate to
the Bermuda area.

The low center will slowly track well north of the area through
Thu pulling the trough away from the area. Until then, the
combination of this trough and plenty of available moisture in
place over the western Atlantic will result in unsettled weather
over these waters through Thu. Central Atlantic high pressure will
begin to build westward toward the Bahamas and Florida Thu
through Fri night.

Farther east, an upper-level trough axis extends from 32N32W to
24N50W to the eastern Caribbean. Upper-level diffluence well east
of this axis is causing scattered moderate convection within 300
nm SE of the trough to the N of 26N. Fresh NE winds are noted
from 18N-27N between 20W-30W.

$$
Stripling
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