[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151920 RRA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Retransmission
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
153 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the E Atlc extending from 02N-17N with
axis near 22W, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is within 150 nm of the wave axis from 05N-11N.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc extending from 02N-18N with
axis near 41W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is within 150 nm of the wave axis from 05N-09N.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc extending from 02N-18N with
axis near 51W, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated showers are within 180
nm behind and 120 nm ahead of the wave axis from 02N-14N. The
tropical wave will cross the Lesser Antilles Tue night, then move
across the eastern Caribbean through early Thu.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean along 62/63W from 16N
southward moving W around 10-15 kt. There is no convection
associated with this wave due to dry air in the area. The tropical
wave will move across the central Caribbean Tue afternoon through
early Thu and across the western Caribbean Thu night to Fri night.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean S of 19N with axis along
82W, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is within 90 nm ahead and 150 nm behind the wave axis
from 11N-19N, including over eastern portions of Honduras and
Nicaragua. The tropical wave will exit the basin by early Tue
afternoon.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Guinea-Bissau and
Gambia near 12N17W to 08N25W. The ITCZ is from 08N25W to 08N39W
then continues from 07N43W to 06N49W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical waves, numerous moderate isolated
strong convection is seen within 180 nm of the ITCZ between
26W-34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A large upper-level low centered near SE Virginia and NE Tennessee
extends a broad upper-level trough axis to southern Georgia to the
east-central Gulf to the SW Gulf. GOES water vapor channels and
TPW imagery indicate that the atmosphere is generally dry in the
northern Gulf but quite moist over the southern and west-central
Gulf. At the surface, a trough is analyzed over the SW Gulf from
19N92W to 25N97W. Isolated showers and tstorms are over the
southern Gulf, generally south of a line from Ft. Myers Florida
to 26N90W to Port O'Connor Texas. A recent ASCAT pass shows
gentle to moderate wind speeds over the basin.

The surface trough over the Yucatan peninsula and SW Gulf will
linger through Tue. Weak high pressure will dominate the remainder
of the basin, supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds
through the entire period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean. See above.

An upper-level trough is over the eastern and southern Gulf of
Mexico, while an upper-level ridge is over the central Caribbean.
In between those features, abundant atmospheric moisture is being
transported to the western Caribbean Sea, as shown by TPW imagery.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen south of
eastern and central Cuba from 18.5N-22N between 76W-82.5W.
Isolated tstorms are seen near the coast of Belize and Yucatan as
well as in the Yucatan Channel and over western Cuba. In the far
SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing
numerous moderate scattered strong convection from 08N-12N
between 75W-82W. Drier air is over the eastern Caribbean east of
75W. A recent ASCAT pass shows strong trades over the
south-central Caribbean from 12N-15N between 70W-76W, with fresh
trades elsewhere south of 18N between 64W-78W.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over portions of
the western Caribbean waters are expected to continue through
Tue. Fresh to strong trade winds will remain over the
south-central Caribbean through the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1016 mb low is near 32N80W. A weak cold front extends westward
from the low to Jacksonville to Tallahassee Florida. A surface
trough extends southward from the low to near 25N80W. CIMSS
analysis shows a large area of upper-level divergence from the
central and northwest Bahamas northward to the Carolinas.
Scattered moderate convection is seen mainly east of the surface
trough from 23N-32N between 71W-80W. Another surface trough is
analyzed from 24N71W to 28N64W to 28N59W to 30N58W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 25N-28N between 56W-66W.

The low near 32N80W will slowly track well north of the area
through Thu pulling the trough away from the area. Until then,
the combination of this trough and plenty of available moisture
in place over the western Atlantic will result in unsettled
weather over these waters through Thu. Central Atlantic high
pressure will begin to build westward toward the Bahamas and
Florida Thu through Fri night.

Farther east, a dissipating cold front is analyzed from 32N24W to
29N30W to 29N39W. An upper-level trough axis extends from 32N32W
to 24N50W to the eastern Caribbean. Upper-level diffluence well
east of this axis is causing scattered showers in the area
enclosed by the points 25N31W to 32N20W to 32N12W to 21.5N30W to
25N31W. Fresh NE winds are noted from 18N-27N between 20W-30W.

$$
Hagen
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