[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142242
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
642 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is just moving off the west coast of
Africa near 16W, moving westward at 15 kt. Numerous moderate
scattered strong convection is from 03N- 10N between 14W and 20W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 37W S of 18N, moving westward
at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is
from 04N- 10N within 120 nm of the wave axis.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 47W S of 18N, moving westward
around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
from 05N-10N within 150 nm of the wave axis.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 59W S of 17N, moving westward
around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
seen from 07N-11N within 60 nm ahead and within 240 nm behind the
wave axis. Enhanced shower activity is possible over the southern
Windward Islands tonight into early Monday.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 77W S of 18N, moving westward
around 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted with the
wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 08N23W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N23W to 07N35W, then resumes from 06N39W to
06N45W, then resumes from 06N48W to 05N52W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is is generally within 180 nm of the
ITCZ between 22W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from 20N90W to 25N95W. Scattered showers
and tstorms are seen near the trough axis, mainly north of 22N.
Additional scattered showers and tstorms are seen from 23N- 27N
between 84W-90W, as well as over the far SE Gulf. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail over most of the basin.

A surface trough will linger over the Yucatan peninsula and SW
Gulf through Tue. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will dominate the
remainder of the basin, supporting moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds through the entire period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An area of enhanced upper-level divergence spans from the central
Bahamas across Cuba to the southwest Caribbean Sea. As a result
of these upper-level conditions, scattered moderate isolated
strong convection covers the western Caribbean from 09N-22N
between 76W-82W. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south
central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the
eastern Caribbean as well as the remainder of the central
Caribbean. Light to gentle winds prevail over the western
Caribbean.

Scattered to numerous showers and tstorms are expected to
continue over the western Caribbean through early Mon. Moderate
to fresh trade winds will remain over the central Caribbean
through the week, with locally strong winds pulsing in the Gulf of
Venezuela and near the coast of Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 70W...An area of enhanced upper-level divergence is
over the Bahamas. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection
is from 20N-27N between 70W-80W. A weak stationary front extends
from 31N79W to near St. Augustine Florida. Scattered showers and
isolated tstorms are seen within 60 nm east of the front.

For the forecast west of 70W...The stationary front will
remain offshore the SE U.S. coast through Tue night. Low
pressure will develop along the front on Mon and slowly
track well north of the area through mid-week. A trough will
trail from the low southward to near the NW Bahamas Wed
through Thu night. Before this happens, a trough, both at the
surface and upper-levels, will be in the vicinity of South
Florida and the Bahamas. These features will combine with
ample moisture in place to bring unsettled weather conditions
to these waters through Wed.

East of 70W...A surface trough extends from 28N65W to 21N71W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 22N-
27N between 62W-67W. A surface trough extends from 32N57W to
25N60W. Scattered moderate convection is north of 27N between
52W- 57W. Farther east, a cold front dips southward into the area
from 32N25W to 30N36W to 32N42W. Moderate to fresh winds are
north of the front. Scattered showers are near the front.

$$
AL/Hagan
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