[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092321
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
721 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 33W/34W S of 15N moving W at 10-15 kt.
A large plume of Saharan dust exists to the N and W of this wave.
Isolated moderate convection is noted within 180 nm E of the
wave axis S of 08N.

A tropical wave is along 50W/51W S of 12N moving W at 5-10 kt.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
06N-11N between 49W-51W.

A tropical wave is along 64W/65W S of the Anegada Passage moving
W at around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted over the
Caribbean Sea with this wave.

A tropical wave is along 81W/82W S of 17N moving W at 5-10 kt.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted S of
11N between 77W and 82W including across the approach to the
Panama Canal. This convection is also due to the eastern extent
of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 06N23W. The ITCZ continues from 06N23W to 04N32W, then
resumes W of a tropical wave from 03N35W to 03N50W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N-05N
between 21W-27W, and from 01N-03N between 47W-50W. Intense
convection is noted inland over western Africa near the monsoon
trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure extends from across northern Florida to the middle
Texas coast. Satellite and radar imagery show fair skies across
most of the basin with isolated thunderstorms noted over central
and northern Florida, as well as over other portions of the SE
United States. Earlier scatterometer data showed gentle return
flow in the eastern Gulf, with moderate to locally fresh return
flow elsewhere.

High pressure will maintain moderate to fresh southerly winds,
highest in the western Gulf, most of the week. A cold front will
enter the northern Gulf late Wed, stretch from the Florida
Panhandle to the SW Gulf Thu night, then stall and gradually
dissipate from the Florida Big Bend to western Bay of Campeche
late Fri through late Sat. Broad troughing extending from the SE
United States across the eastern Gulf will prevail for the end
of the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mainly fair skies are noted across the majority of the basin.
Scattered thunderstorm activity developed over western Jamaica
early this afternoon and has more recently propagated S-SW
offshore. Otherwise, typical afternoon isolated thunderstorms
can be found inland across the basin, with greater coverage and
intensity noted over northern South America under upper level
diffluence. Fresh to strong SE winds and seas of 6-8 ft are
ongoing across the Gulf of Honduras, with fresh winds and seas
of 5-7 ft occurring in the S-central Caribbean N of Colombia.
Elsewhere, moderate trade winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail.

Generally moderate trade winds will prevail across most of the
basin through Sat as weak high pressure prevails across the W
Atlantic. Pulses of fresh to strong winds are expected to
continue across the Gulf of Honduras for the next several nights.
A tropical wave will pass S of Puerto Rico tonight, S of
Hispaniola Wed, then S of Jamaica Thu. High pressure will move
over the W Atlantic Sun and support fresh to strong tradewinds
across the basin E of 80W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1010 mb low is over the central Atlantic near 31N55W. A cold
front extends from the low to 29N53W to 23N60W to 23N65W, then
continuing NW to 30N77W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted within 60-90 nm either side of the front. A
1031 mb high pressure area is over the eastern Atlantic near the
Azores at 41N32W with a ridge axis extending from the high SW
through 32N37W to 18N57W. Winds are mainly light to moderate
across the basin, except fresh to strong southerly winds E-SE of
the central Atlantic low.

The cold front will sag slowly S and E through tonight, then
stall from just N of the Greater Antilles to across the Bahamas
Wed into Thu. High pressure will build in behind the front and
be the dominant weather feature through late week.

$$
JLewitsky
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