[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090513
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM Tue Jun 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 0450 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W south of 13N moving
W around 15 kt to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. To
the north and west of this tropical wave a large plume of
Saharan dust exists. No significant convection is active near the
wave axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W south of 12N,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are from 06N-12N
between 44W-50W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along the Lesser Antilles
along 62W, south of 18N to northeast Venezuela, and is moving W
at 10 kt. The previous soundings from Barbados showed a wind shift
indicative of the wave passing through the region. Scattered showers
are noted across these islands.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends south of Jamaica along
79W, south of 18N to central Panama, and is moving W at 10 kt. This
weak wave is accompanied by significant dry air and has no
convection.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Gambia and Senegal
near 11N16W to 09N21W. The ITCZ continues from 09N21W to 05N29W,
then continues W of a tropical wave near 04N32W to 02N48W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is south of the monsoon
trough off the coasts of Sierra Leone and Liberia from 09N-17N
between 08W-19W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120
nm on either side of the ITCZ between 22W-47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As the center of Cristobal continues moving north away from the
Gulf, mid-level ridging is building across the Gulf. This is
suppressing convective activity across the basin. Light to moderate
SSE winds are noted with seas ranging from 3 to 6 ft, with 7 ft near
the central Gulf coast.

Weak high pressure building in from the east will lead to moderate
to fresh southerly winds, highest in the western Gulf, most of the
week. A cold front will enter the northern Gulf Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Numerous strong convection is moving across the border between
Colombia and Panama, some of which is reaching the adjacent waters.
Otherwise, the rest of the Caribbean has no significant convective
activity. Fresh to strong SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are likely
ongoing across the far northwest Caribbean, between high pressure
north of the area and lower pressure to the west. Fresh to strong
trade winds are likely in a small area off the coast of northeast
Colombia. Elsewhere moderate trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas persist.

A weakening high pressure ridge extends westward along 23N across
the W Atlc and will maintain moderate mainly  moderate tradewinds
across the basin into the weekend. Nightly pulses of fresh to strong
winds are expected across the Gulf of Honduras. A tropical wave
moving across the Lesser Antilles will pass S of Puerto Rico Tue
night, reach 70W on Wed night, then enter the western Caribbean by
the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the western Atlantic from 31N59W to 28N65W. The
front stalls from 28N65W to 31N75W.  Scattered moderate convection
is ongoing from 26N to 32N between 54W and 68W. Moderate to fresh SW
winds and seas to 8 ft are noted in this same area. A pre-frontal
trough is analyzed from 28N59W to 23N63W. Elsewhere west of 50W,
gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are observed.

For the forecast, a weak cold front between Bermuda and the Bahamas
tonight will move southeast to areas east of the Bahamas and N of
the Greater Antilles by midweek, where it will stall. Low pressure
will form along the front E of Bermuda Tue, then meander north and
weaken into late week. Fresh W to SW winds along and ahead of the
front will prevail tonight. High pressure will build in behind the
front and be the dominant weather feature into late week.

Farther east, broad ridging dominates the eastern Atlantic, anchored
by a 1030 mb high over the Azores near 40N30W. A trough is analyzed
from 30N31W to 25N27W.

$$
AReinhart
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