[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
104 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Cristobal is centered inland near 32.5N 91.8W
at 08/1500 UTC or 13 nm E of Momroe Louisiana and is moving
NW at 9 KT. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. The most
significant convection associated with Cristobal is all well
inland north of the area near the center, but scattered moderate
convection is still along the coasts of Louisiana and E Texas.
Strong southerly winds and seas of 8 to 13 ft are still occurring
over much of the north central and northeast Gulf.

On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal should move
through northeastern Louisiana today, through Arkansas and
eastern Missouri tonight and Tuesday, and reach Wisconsin and
the western Great Lakes by Wednesday. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml, and the latest
High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W south of 14N moving
W around 15-20 kt to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. To
the north and west of this tropical wave a large plume of
Saharan dust exists. Scattered moderate convection is near the
monsoon trough from 02N-07N between 22W-29W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W south of 12N, moving
W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-10N
between 43W-47W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 63W through the Lesser
Antilles and into northeast Venezuela, moving W at 10 kt. This
wave and interaction with an upper level trough in the eastern
Caribbean is inducing scattered moderate convection mostly over
the Windward Islands.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 76W, from E
Cuba to northern Colombia, moving W at 10 kt. This weak wave is
accompanied by significant dry air and has no convection.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea near
10N14W to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to 04N26W.
The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 03N29W and continues
to 04N44W. The ITCZ resumes W of another tropical wave near
05N47W and extends to the coast of N Brazil near 03N51W.
Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section,
scattered moderate convection is from 04N-11N between 15W-20W,
and from 01N-05N between 30W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for more details
on Tropical Depression Cristobal.

Outside of the immediate area of impact from Cristobal, the only
significant thunderstorm activity is inland over Florida.
Moderate to locally fresh S winds prevail across the majority of
the Gulf, with seas generally from 4 to 7 ft.

Cristobal will continue to move farther inland and away from the
area today, with winds and seas across the N central Gulf
gradually improving today and then quickly later tonight through
Tue morning. Weak high pressure will build west across the Gulf
early this week and persist through the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

With little in the way of the usual subtropical ridge north of
the Caribbean basin, weak pressure gradient over the Caribbean
is leading to gentle to moderate winds, with areas of fresh
winds off the coast of Venezuela and Colombia and in the Gulf of
Honduras. Seas are mainly 3 to 6 ft overall, with slightly
higher in that area of fresh winds off Colombia. Aside from
convection associated with the eastern tropical wave, dry
conditions prevail expect for along the coast of Panama, and
elsewhere over E Cuba, where scattered showers are ongoing.

A weak high pressure ridge extends westward along 25N-26N
across the W Atlantic and will maintain moderate trade winds
across the basin into the weekend. Nightly pulses of fresh
to strong winds are expected across the Gulf of Honduras.
A tropical wave moving across the Lesser Antilles this morning
will pass S of Puerto Rico Tue, reach the central Caribbean Wed,
then enter the western Caribbean by the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N60W to 28N64W to
31N73W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the
front. Scattered showers are also over the N Bahamas.
Broad ridging dominates the E Atlantic, anchored by a 1028 mb
high over the Azores near 40N30W.

A weak and narrow high pressure ridge along 25N-26N will collapse
as a weak cold front sinks S across the waters S of Bermuda
today. The front will cross waters E of the Bahamas Tue, then
gradually dissipate by mid-week. Low pressure may form E and NE
of the Bermuda by Tue and Wed. Expect fresh to strong W to SW
winds along and ahead of the front today. High pressure will
build in behind the front and be the main weather feature into
late week.

$$
Formosa
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net