[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071749
TWDAT

000
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Cristobal is centered near 28.7N 90.0W at 07/1500
UTC, or 78 nm S of New Orleans Louisiana, move N at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 240 nm of the eastern
semicircle, and within 120 nm of the western semicircle. A band
of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the
eastern Gulf and Florida, east of 84W. Tropical storm force winds
extend 180 nm mostly east of the center. Seas of 12 ft or greater
are located within 330 nm E semicircle, 180 nm SW quadrant, and
210 nm NW quadrant with seas to 22 ft over portions of the
central
Gulf of Mexico. Cristobal is expected to continue moving north
today, then gradually turn to the north-northwest late today or
tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal will
approach the northern Gulf of Mexico coast this afternoon, then
move inland across Louisiana late today through Monday morning,
and northward across Arkansas and Missouri Monday afternoon into
Tuesday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml,
and the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave as emerged off Africa and is
located along 21N south of 14N, moving west around 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is located within about 180 nm
behind this wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W south of 15N, moving
west at 10 kt. No significant convection is associated with
this wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 59W south of 17N, moving
west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm
of the axis, south of 11N.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W south of 18N,
moving west around 15 kt. No significant convection is associated
with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Senegal near
12N16W to 06N23W. The ITCZ extends from 06N23W to 04N30W to
04N40W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 04N43W and
extends to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is located within 120 nm on either side of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for more details
on
Tropical Storm Cristobal.

Cristobal will move inland to near 30.2N 90.5W this evening,
and continue inland weakening to a tropical depression over
the Louisiana/Arkansas near 32.6N 91.6W Mon morning, and move
farther inland to Arkansas near 35.2N 92.2W Mon evening. Winds
and seas will begin to subside late tonight through Mon night
over the north-central gulf waters. Weak Atlantic high pressure
will build westward across the area Mon night through Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean, W Panama,
Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and E Honduras. Fresh trades continue over
much of the central and western Caribbean. Seas range 6 to 8 ft
across most of the basin.

Fresh southeast winds in the Yucatan Channel will continue to
diminish this morning as Tropical Storm Cristobal moves farther
from the area. Relatively weak high pressure north of the area
will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the
Caribbean through Tue, then mainly moderate winds through Thu
night. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the far
northwestern Caribbean and near the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize
will continue to lift northward to the SE Gulf of Mexico through
this afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad high pressure is dominating much of the central and western
Atlantic today. There is a weak surface trough from
20N to 30N along 55W, where scattered showers have developed.
Generally moderate trades prevail with seas averaging 5 to 7 ft.

Tropical Storm Cristobal will continue to track northward
toward the central U.S. Gulf Coast this afternoon as
relatively weak high is present east of Florida. Widespread
areas
of rain along with scattered showers and thunderstorms in between
this two features, including the waters north of the Bahamas
will
gradually decrease through tonight. A cold front will push south
of Bermuda tonight, then move eastward to northeast and east of
the Bahamas through Tue. Ahead of the front, fresh to strong
west
to southwest winds are possible, mainly north of 27N and east of
70W through Mon. High pressure will build southward across the
western part of the area Mon night through Thu night. Weak low
pressure may form early in the week to the southeast or east of
Bermuda along this frontal boundary.

$$
Formosa
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