[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT33 KNHC 070839
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
400 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020

...SQUALLS WITH TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS REACH THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 90.1W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi
River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Florida line
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 90.1 West. Cristobal is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a gradual turn
toward the north-northwest late today or tonight.  On the forecast
track, the center of Cristobal will approach the northern Gulf of
Mexico coast today, then move inland across Louisiana late today
through Monday morning, and northward across Arkansas and Missouri
Monday afternoon into Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast before landfall, and weakening
will begin once Cristobal moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
mainly to the east of he center.  A National Ocean Service station
at the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River recently reported
sustained winds of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a wind gust of 62 mph (100
km/h) at an elevation of 78 feet (24 m).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on oil platform
observations is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...3-5 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft
Ocean Springs MS to Marco Island FL including Mobile Bay, Pensacola
Bay, and Tampa Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the
east of the center.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the northern Gulf coast beginning this
morning.

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across portions of the central Gulf
Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with isolated amounts to
12 inches.  Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with local amounts to
6 inches are expected across portions of the eastern Gulf Coast,
along with the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains
near and in advance of Cristobal.  This rainfall may lead to flash
flooding and widespread flooding on smaller streams across portions
of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. New and
renewed significant river flooding is possible along the central
Gulf Coast and into the Mississippi Valley.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
eastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and
northern Florida.

SURF:  Swells generated by Cristobal will affect portions of the
northern and eastern Gulf coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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